New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (36-19) wrap up their 4-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (35-18) Sunday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

N.Y. beat L.A. 9-4 Saturday in the 3rd game of the series after the Dodgers won the first 2 (2-0 Thursday and 6-1 Friday). Mets 1B Pete Alonso lit up the Dodgers Saturday, hitting 3-for-5 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs.

Season series: L.A. leads 2-1 with a plus-2 run differential (12-10).

Mets at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Trevor Williams vs. LHP Julio Urias

Williams is 1-3 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 27 2/3 IP over 4 starts and 5 relief appearances.

  • Last start: Win, 10-0, Tuesday at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 5-scoreless IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: .297/.431/.624 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with 14.0 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 50 plate appearances (PA).

Urias is 3-5 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 53 IP across 10 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 5-3, Tuesday at home vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates with 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Mets: One start — a 6-5 win in N.Y. Aug. 13 — with 5-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster: .214/.268/.282 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 27.8 K% and 82.5 mph EV in 36 PA.

Mets at Dodgers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Dodgers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-135) | Dodgers -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Mets at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 5, Mets 3

Money line

“Flat” BET 1 unit on the DODGERS (-180).

The Mets are just 8-9 overall vs. left-handed starters, score almost a full run less per 9 against lefties and have mediocre advanced hitting metrics.

The Dodgers are 22-12 vs. right-handed starters and ranks 1st in wRC+ (121), wOBA (.341) and BB/K rate (0.52) and 5th in hard-hit rate (33.3%), per FanGraphs.

Urias also has nearly double the strikeout rate and a 7-plus mph slower exit velocity vs. N.Y.’s lineup than Williams against L.A. and he has 4 quality starts while Williams has none.

If your standard wager is $100 then BET that on the DODGERS (-180) to earn a $55.56 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Dodgers -1.5 (+110) aren’t a big enough payout considering the Mets are 7-3 RL as road underdogs. Let’s stick with L.A.’s pricey ML.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-102) since both starters have impressive pitching peripherals, both bullpens are elite, L.A. is 2-8 O/U in Urias’ 10 starts this season and the Mets-Dodgers are 2-5 O/U in their last 7 meetings.

It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (-102) because I prefer L.A.’s ML, Dodger Stadium is a very hitter-friendly 5th in park factor, the Mets are 6-3-1 O/U as road underdogs and the Dodgers are 15-11 O/U as home favorites.

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