The New York Mets (36-19) wrap up their 4-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers (35-18) Sunday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y. beat L.A. 9-4 Saturday in the 3rd game of the series after the Dodgers won the first 2 (2-0 Thursday and 6-1 Friday). Mets 1B Pete Alonso lit up the Dodgers Saturday, hitting 3-for-5 with 2 home runs and 5 RBIs.
Season series: L.A. leads 2-1 with a plus-2 run differential (12-10).
Mets at Dodgers projected starters
RHP Trevor Williams vs. LHP Julio Urias
Williams is 1-3 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 27 2/3 IP over 4 starts and 5 relief appearances.
- Last start: Win, 10-0, Tuesday at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 5-scoreless IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: .297/.431/.624 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with 14.0 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 50 plate appearances (PA).
Urias is 3-5 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 53 IP across 10 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 5-3, Tuesday at home vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates with 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.
- 2021 vs. the Mets: One start — a 6-5 win in N.Y. Aug. 13 — with 5-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: .214/.268/.282 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 27.8 K% and 82.5 mph EV in 36 PA.
Mets at Dodgers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Dodgers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-135) | Dodgers -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Mets at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 5, Mets 3
Money line
“Flat” BET 1 unit on the DODGERS (-180).
The Mets are just 8-9 overall vs. left-handed starters, score almost a full run less per 9 against lefties and have mediocre advanced hitting metrics.
The Dodgers are 22-12 vs. right-handed starters and ranks 1st in wRC+ (121), wOBA (.341) and BB/K rate (0.52) and 5th in hard-hit rate (33.3%), per FanGraphs.
Urias also has nearly double the strikeout rate and a 7-plus mph slower exit velocity vs. N.Y.’s lineup than Williams against L.A. and he has 4 quality starts while Williams has none.
If your standard wager is $100 then BET that on the DODGERS (-180) to earn a $55.56 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Dodgers -1.5 (+110) aren’t a big enough payout considering the Mets are 7-3 RL as road underdogs. Let’s stick with L.A.’s pricey ML.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-102) since both starters have impressive pitching peripherals, both bullpens are elite, L.A. is 2-8 O/U in Urias’ 10 starts this season and the Mets-Dodgers are 2-5 O/U in their last 7 meetings.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (-102) because I prefer L.A.’s ML, Dodger Stadium is a very hitter-friendly 5th in park factor, the Mets are 6-3-1 O/U as road underdogs and the Dodgers are 15-11 O/U as home favorites.
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