The Cincinnati Reds (15-21) conclude a 3-game series against the New York Mets (18-19) on Thursday. First pitch at Great American Ball Park is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
After a strong start to the season by winning 6 of their first 7, the Mets have struggled as of late, losing 3 of their last 4. They did beat the Reds on Wednesday 2-1 though.
The Reds have alternated between winning and losing over their last 5 games. They beat New York 7-6 to open up the 3-game series on Tuesday.
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Mets at Reds projected starters
RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Derek Law
Senga (4-1, 3.38 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 18 IP.
- First career start against Cincinnati.
- Is 2-0 on the road this season; Mets have won those 2 games by a combined 26-10
Law (2-4, 3.00 ERA) makes his 1st start (18th appearance). He has a 1.50 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 32 IP.
- First start since 2019 when he played with Toronto
- His 3.00 ERA is his lowest since his 2016 rookie season
- Pitched 1 inning in Reds’ 7-6 win over Mets on May 9 (1 H,1 BB)
Mets at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Reds +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (-130) | Reds +1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mets at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Reds 5
Moneyline
PASS.
Law has been good this season in relief, but given he isn’t an everyday starter, he may struggle to stay in the game past 4 innings. Couple that with Cincinnati’s bullpen having allowed the 9th-most hits, and the home side to win outright isn’t worth a play at (+165).
The Mets are too expensive to play just to win as well at (-200). Ultimately, pass on a moneyline play.
Run line/Against the spread
BET REDS +1.5 (+105).
The Reds are one of the best teams in the MLB against the spread (ATS). They are 21-15 and have had 3 of their last 5 games end within a run.
While Senga has been a quality option and is undefeated, his road success has come behind a potent Mets’ offense, not necessarily top-tier pitching.
Expect Cincinnati to score some and be able to keep this close. Take REDS +1.5 (+105).
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 10 (-115).
The Mets have gone Over in 2 of their last 3 games and should be able to crack into the Reds bullpen early with Law on the mound.
As for the Reds, they are 19-17 O/U this season and 3-2 O/U in their alst 5 games. They have scored 4 or more in 3 of their last 4, so they should bounce back after having just 1 run on Wednesday.
Take the OVER 10 (-115).
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