The Chicago Cubs (34-54) host the New York Mets (55-34) Thursday at Wrigley Field for the 1st of a 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Cubs nickname odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y. is. 6-4 overall in the last 10 and just won 2 of 3 games with the NL East rival Atlanta Braves Monday-Wednesday.
Chicago has lost 8 of the last 10 games including 6 straight to the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Thursday’s game is their 1st meeting of the season. Chicago won last year’s season series with N.Y. 4-3 and had a plus-10 run differential in the 7 games.
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Mets at Cubs projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Keegan Thompson
Carrasco is 9-4 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 93 IP over 17 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 5-4 home win vs. the Miami Marlins Saturday with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 road splits: 3-4 with a 6.11 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.36 WHIP, 7 HR and 9.2 K/9 in 7 starts.
Thompson is 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 77 IP over 11 starts and 8 relief appearances.
- Last start: No-decision in Chicago’s 4-3 loss at the Dodgers Friday with 5 2/3 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 2 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
- 2022 home splits: 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 1 HR and 9.5 K/9 in 5 starts and 6 bullpen outings.
Mets at Cubs odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:23 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+125) | Cubs +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Mets at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 4, Mets 3
Money line
BET 0.75 units on the CUBS (+110) because this line is suspiciously low and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed toward Chicago in the betting market, which suggests the House is laying a trap with the Mets (-135).
Roughly 80% of the money is on N.Y.’s ML, but the Mets have been lowered from a -141 opener per Pregame.com. This is also suspicious because common sense tells us that the oddsmakers would move the line according to the market movement.
But this RLM makes sense because Carrasco has cooled off after a hot start to the year and Thompson has pitched very well at home. Also, Chicago’s lineup ranks in the middle of the pack in advanced hitting metrics vs. right-handed pitching and the bullpen is 6th in xFIP, according to FanGraphs.
BET the CUBS (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Obviously, I’d like some insurance on our Chicago ML wager but the Cubs +1.5 (-155) is out of my price range especially because the Mets -1.5 (+125) are 15-10 RL as road favorites.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105) since there’s RLM in the market for the total as well. More than three-fourths of the money is on the Over 7.5 (-115) but the total has been lowered from an 8-run opener, according to Pregame.com.
Also, the weather forecast is predicting pitcher-friendly conditions with temperatures projected to be in the low-70s and 10 mph winds blowing in from center field.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-107) because Chicago’s ML is my favorite look in this game.
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