The New York Mets (41-34) and Atlanta Braves (37-41) continue their three-game series Wednesday at Truist Park in Atlanta. Game 2’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Mets lead 6-3.
LHP David Peterson is on the rubber for the Mets. Peterson is 2-5 with a 4.95 ERA (63 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 across 14 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 5 K vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Friday.
- Peterson got a no-decision earlier this season vs. the Braves (May 19) with a stat line of 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K in Atlanta’s 5-4 victory.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 47 at-bats with a .191/.283/.319 slash line, 17/5 K/BB, 1 HR and 5 RBIs.
LHP Max Fried makes his 12th for the Braves. Fried is 4-4 with a 4.21 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 9-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 6 K vs. the St. Louis Cardinals June 18.
- Fried took a loss May 17 vs. the Mets in 6 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K in New York’s 3-1 win.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 114 at-bats with a .202/.287/.342 slash line, 32/11 K/BB, 2 HR and 10 RBIs.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Mets at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Mets 4, Braves 3
Money line (ML)
TAKE the METS (+125) for 1 unit because they have a significant edge in the pitching matchup and the presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing New York.
First of all, New York’s bullpen is head and shoulders better than Atlanta’s. The Mets relievers are fifth in xFIP, sixth in SIERA and eighth in both K-BB% and left-on-base percentage. Whereas the Braves relievers are bottom-10 in the majors for all those categories.
Also, both Peterson’s basic numbers and pitching peripherals vs. active Braves hitters are slightly more impressive than Fried’s against Mets batters, but Peterson has a 1.46 FIP against Atlanta compared to Fried’s 3.24 FIP vs. New York.
Furthermore, Peterson’s pitching performance against Atlanta earlier this season was actually very good once you look under the hood.
For instance, Peterson had his best hard-hit rate vs. the Braves of any start in 2021, the second-highest K/BB rate and a 2.29 FIP on a 5.79 ERA. Peterson’s issue in that start was his unlucky .385 BAbip, which figures to regress to the mean in this meeting.
Lastly, according to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the money has been wagered on the Mets, but 70% of the bets placed are on the Braves. Typically it’s more profitable in sports betting to follow the money – especially when it’s flowing opposite of the public.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets +1.5 (-160) because New York’s run line is a little too pricy for me to bet outright, but I’d entertain incorporating it into a parlay with another similarly priced line for an even-money payout.
In addition, the Mets have a 70.0% cover rate as a road underdog (14-6 ATS) and the Braves have a 27.8% cover rate as a home favorite (10-26 ATS).
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” against a market that’s betting the Over at a 76% clip (according to Pregame.com).
Moreover, these starters have solid numbers vs. their respective opponents, and most of the situational trends point to a lower-scoring affair.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]