The Arizona Diamondbacks (50-35) welcome the New York Mets (38-46) to Chase Field for a 3-game series. First pitch Tuesday is set for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Mets won 4 of 6 meeings in 2022
The Diamondbacks lost to the Angels 5-2 Sunday yet won the series 2-1. They are 6-5 over their last 11 games and are 24-20 at home this season.
The Mets are 18-27 on the road and 4-6 in their last 10. They are coming off a series win over the Giants, beating them 8-4 in the final game Sunday.
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Mets at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Zach Davies
Senga (6-5, 3.53 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 81 2/3 innings.
- The 30-year-old rookie has a NL-high 46 walks
- Mets are 8-7 in Senga’s 15 starts
- Last start: 5 IP, 5H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K in 5-2 win June 28 vs. the Milwaukee Brewers
Davies (1-4, 6.54 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 42 2/3 innings.
- Diamondbacks are 4-5 in his 9 starts
- Has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his last 4 starts but is coming off his best outing of the season
- Last start: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K in 3-2 loss June 28 to the Tampa Bay Rays
Mets at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Diamondbacks -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+140) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Mets at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
BET METS (-115).
Despite the Mets road record, they are 14-12 as an away favorite this season, and the Diamondbacks are just 8-13 as a home underdog. This also feels like a trap game for bettors as the top team in the NL West should be a favorite against the 4th-best team in the NL East. However, the pitching difference is enough to back New York.
While Davies performed well his last time on the mound, he’s given up 6 or more ER in 2 of his last 3 starts, so it is hard to trust him against a high-powered Mets offense. With that in mind, take the METS (-115).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Diamondbacks have been better at home while the Mets have struggled on the road.
Despite the Mets having a pitcher that has been better for most of the season, taking them on the run line doesn’t have much value. Similarly, the Diamondbacks at +1.5 (-165) is far too expensive to play as well.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 9 (+100).
Arizona’s offense has struggled lately, scoring 3 or fewer in 4 of its last 5 games. It is just 39-41-5 O/U this season and has gone Under in 5 straight games.
The Mets are 35-43-6 O/U, so they have been profitable on this side of the total. New York has gone 1-4-2 O/U in its last 7 games. Back the UNDER 9 (+100).
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