The No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (2-2) heads back to Footprint Center Tuesday to play the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-2) at 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
NOLA evened the series Sunday by beating Phoenix 118-103 in Game 4. The Pelicans outscored the Suns in three of the four quarters, outperformed them in three of the “four factors” and NOLA wing Brandon Ingram scored a game-high 30 points.
Pelicans big Jonas Valančiūnas got revenge for Suns big Deandre Ayton wearing him out in Game 3. Valančiūnas outscored Ayton 26-23, outrebounded him 15-8 and attempted 9 more free throws.
However, the major takeaway from Game 4 was NOLA’s defense on Suns PG Chris Paul who had a minus-43 net rating and had almost as many turnovers (3) as points (4).
Pelicans at Suns odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Pelicans +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Suns -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Pelicans +6.5 (-108) | Suns -6.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Pelicans at Suns key injuries
Pelicans
- PF Zion Williamson (foot) out
Suns
- SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out
[tipico]
Pelicans at Suns picks and predictions
Prediction
Pelicans 107, Suns 102
Money line
SPRINKLE on the PELICANS (+225) to win this game and I’m hitting both NOLA’s spread and adjusted series price of +240 harder.
The Pelicans have a personnel edge with Booker sidelined and an overwhelming edge in rebounding and free-throw attempt rates.
NOLA’s offensive rebounding rate is 16.5% higher than Phoenix’s in this series and the Pelicans have attempted 39 more free throws than the Suns because they are aggressively attacking the basket.
Without CP3 brilliance (which frankly is inconsistent come the postseason) the Suns are not a good bet to win this series if they are going to get beaten this badly in two of the “four factors”.
Ingram has become the best player in this series once Booker went down. BI is scoring a series-high 29.8 points on 62.9% true shooting (.513/.500/.879) with 6.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists and a plus-9 net rating.
However, NOLA plus the points is a much sharper wager so I’d only SPRINKLE on the PELICANS (+225), if at all.
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Against the spread
Definitely BET the PELICANS +6.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of their ML based on the prior analysis and NOLA is outscoring Phoenix by 3.3 points per 100 possessions in this series.
More importantly, the Suns are a lot less scary without Booker who is their only dude that can consistently create his own looks in half-court sets. The Pelican have Ingram and SG C.J. McCollum who is quietly averaging 24.0 points per game in this series.
The PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite bet in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 214.5 (-107) because this is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market for the total and Pelicans-Suns is the third-slowest-paced series in the playoffs.
More cash is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over according to pregame.com and the oddsmakers are reacting to the money in the market by lowering the total down from the 217-point opener.
In sports betting it’s typically profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.
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