The USFL South Division championship is Sunday with the New Orleans Breakers (7-3) at the Birmingham Stallions (8-2). Kickoff is 7 p.m. ET at Protective Stadium in Birmingham (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Breakers vs. Stallions odds, and make our expert USFL picks and predictions.
The Breakers made the playoffs winning the final 3 games of the regular season after 3 consecutive losses. They closed the regular season with a 17-10 win over the Houston Gamblers as 4-point favorites while the Under (44.5) cashed.
The Stallions enter the postseason riding a 5-game winning streak. They wrapped up the regular season with a 27-20 road win over the Memphis Showboats as 4.5-point favorites while the Over (44) hit.
The teams split their 2 regular-season matchups. The Breakers won in Birmingham 45-31 in Week 3 while the Stallions bounced back with a 24-20 win in Week 7.
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Breakers at Stallions odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:58 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Breakers +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Stallions -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Breakers +3 (-110) | Stallions -3 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Breakers at Stallions key injuries
(From official team Twitter accounts)
Breakers
- S James Wiggins (shoulder) questionable
Stallions
- WR Myron Mitchell (hand) out
- DE Jonathan Newsome (knee) out
- OL Jahmir Ross-Johnson (shoulder) out
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Breakers at Stallions picks and predictions
Prediction
Stallions 24, Breakers 20
Moneyline
The Stallions come in riding a 5-game winning streak and have not scored fewer than 24 points in the streak. They have scored at least 20 points every game, finishing the year 1st in yards (332.6 YPG) and points (28.7 PG), 2nd in passing (217.1 YPG) and 3rd in rushing (115.5 YPG).
The Breakers finished 2nd in scoring (23.7 PPG), but scored more than 24 only once in their final 7 games. They were No. 1 in total defense (272.0 YPG) and scoring defense (18.4 PPG), but allowed Birmingham to score 24-plus points in both regular-season matchups.
I like the Stallions to win and the moneyline isn’t a bad bet but the spread is a better value.
PASS.
Against the spread
All 8 of the Stallions’ wins were by at least 3 points while all 3 of the Breakers’ losses were by at least 4 points.
The Stallions have not scored fewer than 24 points over the last 5 weeks and scored at least 27 in 4 of them. The Breakers reached 24 points once over the final 7 weeks.
BET STALLIONS -3 (-110).
Over/Under
The 1st matchup between them in Week 3 had 76 points, but the Week 7 had only 44 total points.
The last 3 games for Birmingham and 4 of the last 6 have had totals of more than 45 points. The Breakers have not had a game reach 45 total points since Week 3 against the Stallions.
BET UNDER 45 (-110).
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