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The New Mexico State Aggies (4-3, 2-1 Conference USA) and UTEP Miners (2-5, 1-2) tussle in a midweek showdown in El Paso. The Wednesday contest at the Sun Bowl kicks off at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the New Mexico State vs. UTEP odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston State 27-13 last Wednesday, covering as a 4-point favorite and winning its 2nd straight game. NMSU has yielded just 23.1 points per game, an average that ranks 3rd in CUSA. The Aggies have been especially stingy in the red zone, allowing TDs on just 48.3% of opponent trips.
The Miners snapped a 4-game losing skid with a 27-14 win at Florida International last Wednesday (as a +3.5 underdog). Texas-El Paso bolted out of the gate with 21 1st-quarter points in that game. The Miners also leveraged a plus-2 in turnover margin. That was a flip of the script for a team that had been a minus-8 heading in to that contest.
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New Mexico State at UTEP odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:11 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: New Mexico State -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | UTEP +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread (ATS): New Mexico State -3.5 (-105) | UTEP +3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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New Mexico State at UTEP picks and predictions
Prediction
New Mexico State 31, UTEP 24
Moneyline
PASS. Peg the true odds as being drowned by the juice.
Against the spread
The NMSU yards-per-play advantage is substantial, especially when the Aggies offense is on the field. Peg UTEP’s pass defense being significantly worse than what one might see in a ranking of yards allowed (204.7, 36th FBS). But there is enough hidden value in the Miners offense that the 3-and-a-hook carries little value. PASS.
Over/Under
The trends on both sides are full of Unders, but the play here is the zag to that zig.
The Miners have had 3 games where they’ve been undone by turnovers, short fields and 3rd-down inefficiency. Some better offensive signals lurk below the surface.
There has been an uptick in New Mexico State’s throwing percentage in its play mix. Its pace of play is on the slower side for the season as a whole but up quite a bit over recent games.
Look for both teams to move the ball on a good-weather evening in El Paso. FanDuel Sportsbook offers the better pricing here. TAKE THE OVER 47.5 (-110).
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