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The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-3) of the Sun Belt face the TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) of the Big 12 in the New Mexico Bowl Saturday. Kickoff from University Stadium in Albuquerque is at 2:15 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Louisiana vs. TCU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Louisiana won the Sun Belt West Division, going 7-1 in conference play but lost the conference championship 31-3 to Marshall Dec. 7. The Ragin’ Cajuns were upset as 5-point favorites and the Under (58) cashed. They finished 7-6 against the spread (ATS) with a 6-7 O/U record.
TCU finished tied for fifth in the Big 12 with a 6-3 conference record. The Horned Frogs closed the regular season with 3 consecutive wins, including a 20-13 road victory as 2.5-point favorites at Cincinnati — the Under (58) hit. TCU finished 5-7 ATS with a 7-5 O/U mark.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Louisiana vs. TCU odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Friday at 4:37 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Louisiana +333 (bet $100 to win $333) | TCU -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Louisiana +10.5 (-110) | TCU -10.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Louisiana vs. TCU picks and predictions
Prediction
TCU 33, Louisiana 20
Moneyline
The Horned Frogs (-450) averaged 35.2 points per game over their final 5 contests, and they won 5 of their final 6 games.
The Rajin’ Cajuns (+333) averaged 41.3 points in the final four 4 games of the regular season. However, they were held to 3 points in the Sun Belt title game as Marshall shut down Louisiana’s ground game, which managed just 56 yards.
TCU’s offense will force Louisiana to be one-dimensional and that will play into the Horned Frogs’ hands.
Expect a TCU win, but -450 odds aren’t worth the action for a wager.
PASS.
Against the spread
Of Louisiana’s 3 losses, only one was by more than 10 points — the conference championship. All 3 of its losses were against bowl-eligible teams. The loss to Marshall exposed its play against quality competition.
TCU covered the spread in 5 of its 6 conference wins.
BET TCU -10.5 (-110).
Over/Under
Two of Louisiana’s 3 losses did not reach 50 points.
Before TCU’s 20-13 win to end the regular season, it had 3 out of 4 with totals in the 70’s.
But don’t expect the game to be that high-scoring. All the time off and the superior TCU defense will keep Louisiana from scoring enough to get close to the projected total.
BET UNDER 58.5 (-105).
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