The New England Patriots (1-3) try to bounce back after a tough Week 4 loss when playing the struggling Houston Texans (1-3) on the road. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium. Below, we look at the Patriots vs. Texans odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
The Patriots were nearly able to spoil Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady‘s return to New England but a missed potential game-winning field goal from 56 yards gave the Bucs a 19-17 win. Rookie QB Mac Jones has passed for 1,012 yards, 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, while the defense is No. 5 in yards allowed and No. 6 in points allowed through four games.
The Texans have lost three straight games after a season-opening win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Rookie QB Davis Mills has been starting in place of Tyrod Taylor since he injured his hamstring. The Texans have scored only 9 total points in two games with Mills at the helm.
Patriots at Texans odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Patriots -420 (bet $420 to win $100) | Texans +320 (bet $100 to win $320)
- Against the spread (ATS): Patriots -8.5 (-108) | Texans +8.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 39.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Patriots at Texans key injuries
Patriots
- OT Trent Brown (calf) out
- G Shaq Mason (abdomen) out
- CB Shaun Wade (concussion) out
- LB Kyle Van Noy (groin) questionable
- PK Nick Folk (knee) questionable
- DB Jalen Mills (hamstring) questionable
- CB Jonathan Jones (ankle) questionable
- OL Marcus Cannon (back) questionable
Texans
- RB Rex Burkhead (hip) out
- WR Danny Amendola (thigh) questionable
- TE Brevin Jordan (illness) questionable
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Patriots at Texans odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Patriots 20, Texans 10
Money line
The Patriots have not been particularly good on offense this season, scoring over 20 points just once through four games. However, the Texans have allowed an average of 29.0 points per game.
With the Texans offensive struggles with Mills at quarterback, even if the Patriots don’t score much, Houston will struggle against New England’s very good defense.
With the line what it is, PASS on the money line.
Against the spread
Houston scored 9 points in its last two games. New England held the Buccaneers, who had scored 103 points across their first three games, to only 19. Houston will be lucky to hit double digits.
Both the Texans and the Patriots are 2-2 ATS but in this game, expect the New England defense to continue to add to the Texans’ offensive struggles and the offense to be mildly productive.
Take the PATRIOTS -8.5 (-108).
Over/Under
All four of the Patriots’ games stayed Under the projected total.
Since Mills took over at quarterback, the Texans have not had a game hit the Over.
Keep with that trend.
Take UNDER 39.5 (-105).
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