Typically, offseason mock drafts use the Super Bowl odds for the following season to project the draft order. It’s a safe way to not ruffle any feathers amongst fanbases who get projected near the top of the draft.
So when we get a mock draft that doesn’t use the Super Bowl odds or projected win total odds (another common determinant), it’s worth noting. Kudos to Dalton Miller of Pro Football Network for going on a limb and projecting the season’s outcome by going through every 2024 regular season game on his own and projecting winners and losers.
The draft order is based on personalized season predictions. Every NFL game was picked to make the order. And while things will undoubtedly change as the season progresses, some teams are already at a disadvantage for the 2023 NFL season.
Miller’s resulting draft order looks more than a little different from the typical odds-based mocks. The divergence starts at the top. PFN projects the Los Angeles Rams to earn the No. 1 overall pick. Normally the Rams are slotted in the 6-7 overall range. The Rams stay local and select USC QB Caleb Williams with the top pick in the projection.
The Arizona Cardinals remain at No. 2 as they do in other projections, with Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. getting the early nod. The rest of the top 10 in PFN’s mock:
3. Las Vegas Raiders: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
4. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
6. Green Bay Packers: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
7. Tennessee Titans: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
8. Indianapolis Colts: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
9. Houston Texans: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
10. Chicago Bears: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Rams, Packers, Titans and Colts don’t typically project to pick as high as they’re shown here. It’s a fun shakeup to the preseason norms.