Every year hundreds of NFL prospects put their athletic traits on display for teams, hoping to earn a contract at the next level. Learning about each prospect and determining if they fit your favorite team can be a daunting task for fans.
With this in mind, when Bob Quinn was hired 2016 as the Detroit Lions general manager, I created a system called Quinn Influenced Benchmarks (QIB) that focuses on a player’s athletic attributes and projects their potential fit with the team. Over the last five years, I have added more data to the QIB database, and trends have been identified to help narrow the field of prospects.
With pro days being canceled, athletic testing has been limited this offseason, and in turn, the QIB database is smaller than usual. Fortunately, most of the draftable running backs were at the NFL Combine and tested in the position’s athletic categories QIB relies on.
Let’s take a closer look at some of those categories and the players that hit the athletic thresholds.
Speed score
Speed score is a metric created by Bill Barnwell in 2008, that factors in a player’s weight and 40 yard-dash time to create a score for predicting running back success. Hitting 100 on the speed score is considered a solid score, over 110 is excellent, and over 120 is elite.
The Lions example:
| Weight | 40 y/d | Speed Score | |
| Kerryon Johnson | 213 | 4.52 | 102.1 |
| Bo Scarbrough | 228 | 4.52 | 109.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 213 | 4.4 | 113.7 |
Both Kerryon Johnson and Scarbrough ran a 4.52, but Scarbrough’s added weight gives him a higher speed score. The same is true when comparing weight as Kerryon Johnson and Ty Johnson both checked in at 213 pounds, by Ty Johnson’s 4.4 speed gives him a higher score.
When looking at this draft class, there are nine players who ran the 40 yard-dash at the Combine and achieved a speed score of at least 102.1 (the floor set by Kerryon Johnson).
| Player | School | Weight | 40 | Speed Score |
| Vaughn, Ke’Shawn | Vanderbilt | 214 | 4.51 | 103.45 |
| Kelley, Joshua | UCLA | 212 | 4.49 | 104.32 |
| Swift, D’Andre | Georgia | 212 | 4.48 | 105.26 |
| McFarland, Anthony | Maryland | 208 | 4.44 | 107.04 |
| Evans, Darrynton | Appalachian State | 203 | 4.41 | 107.34 |
| Akers, Cam | Florida State | 217 | 4.47 | 108.71 |
| Dillon, AJ | Boston College | 247 | 4.53 | 117.31 |
| Taylor, Jonathan | Wisconsin | 226 | 4.39 | 121.70 |
| Gibson, Antonio | Memphis | 228 | 4.39 | 122.77 |
Dillon, Taylor, and Gibson exceeded the speed score of all the Lions’ current backs which should make them very appealing from an athletic standpoint. If you don’t recognize Gibson from his Combine workout, it may be because he is a dual-threat player and worked out with the wide receiver group.
Burst rate
Burst rate is a metric that examines a prospect’s explosion by using a formula that gives equal weight to a player’s vertical jump and broad jump scores. For running backs, achieving a score of 120 is above-average, while hitting 130 is elite.
This is an area the Lions’ tend to put a heavy focus on:
| Vertical Jump | Broad Jump | Burst rate | |
| Ty Johnson | 35 | 10.25 | 120.15 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 40 | 10.50 | 131.00 |
| Bo Scarbrough | 40 | 10.75 | 132.50 |
When looking at this year’s draft class, 11 players had a vertical jump of 35-inches, a broad jump of 10.25 feet, and a burst rate over 120.15, a floor set by Ty Johnson in this metric.
| Player | College | Vertical | Broad | Burst rate |
| Taylor, Jonathan | Wisconsin | 36 | 10.25 | 122.70 |
| Olonilua, Sewo | TCU | 36 | 10.25 | 122.70 |
| Anderson, Darius | TCU | 36 | 10.67 | 125.20 |
| Evans, Darrynton | Appalachian State | 37 | 10.42 | 125.40 |
| Hasty, JaMycal | Baylor | 39 | 10.25 | 127.80 |
| Dowdle, Rico | South Carolina | 38 | 10.58 | 128.10 |
| Herrien, Brian | Georgia | 38.5 | 10.50 | 128.45 |
| Edwards-Helaire, Clyde | LSU | 39.5 | 10.25 | 128.65 |
| Bellamy, LeVante | Western Michigan | 39.5 | 10.42 | 129.65 |
| Robinson, James | Illinois State | 40 | 10.42 | 130.50 |
| Dillon, AJ | Boston College | 41 | 10.92 | 135.20 |
Robinson and Dillon both break the 130 mark set by Kerryon Johnson and Scarbrough.
Putting it together
To take the narrowing process another step further, we need to look at the prospects who meet the criteria in both speed score and burst rate, as well as those who tested well enough they could get an exemption in one area.
Here’s a reminder of the Lions top backs:
| Weight | Speed score | Burst rate | |
| Kerryon Johnson | 213 | 102.1 | 131.0 |
| Bo Scarbrough | 228 | 109.2 | 132.5 |
| Ty Johnson | 213 | 113.7 | 120.15 |
Before we get to the full qualifiers, let’s take a look at some of the exemptions who are worth paying attention to.
| Player | College | Weight | 40 | Speed Score | Vertical | Broad | Burst rate |
| Swift, D’Andre | Georgia | 212 | 4.48 | 105.3 | 35.5 | 10.08 | 120.85 |
| Akers, Cam | Florida State | 217 | 4.47 | 108.7 | 35.5 | 10.17 | 121.35 |
| Gipson, Antonio | Memphis | 228 | 4.39 | 122.7 | 35 | 9.83 | 118.5 |
| Robinson, James | Illinois State | 219 | 4.64 | 94.49 | 40 | 10.42 | 130.50 |
Swift and Akers fall just short of Ty Johnson’s broad jump score of 10.25 feet, but because burst score accounts for the vertical as well, they still clear the 120 mark.
Gipson’s speed score is elite, while his burst score is just under the 120 mark — plenty close enough to stay in contention for the Lions.
Robinson is the opposite of Gipson, he comes up short in the speed score, yet his burst rate is exceptional.
Here are the final three backs in this draft class who exceed the benchmarks in both speed score and burst rate.
| Player | College | Weight | 40 | Speed score | Vertical | Broad | Burst rate |
| Taylor, Jonathan | Wisconsin | 226 | 4.39 | 121.7 | 36 | 10.25 | 122.7 |
| Dillon, AJ | Boston College | 247 | 4.53 | 117.31 | 41 | 10.92 | 135.2 |
| Evans, Darrynton | Appalachian State | 203 | 4.41 | 107.34 | 37 | 10.42 | 125.4 |
Taylor, Dillon, Evans all exceed the threshold in every measurable and should be considered the top athletic matches for the Lions in this class.
If we take it one final step further and want to declare a winner, the honor would go to Dillon as he exceeds the current Lions’ benchmarks in every category.
Don’t forget the film
While QIB has narrowed the field to seven main running backs who meet the athletic benchmarks, it’s important to remember it’s only one part of the evaluation process. Film study, character, and medicals all play factors in determining a prospects overall value.
Swift, Taylor, and Akers’ value typically sits near the top of this draft class and they are expected to be selected in the top-100 picks. Are the Lions willing to spend one of their three Day 2 picks on a player who will enter a rotation at running back? That answer may come down to how much faith the Lions have in Kerryon Johnson and Scarbrough to stay healthy.
Dillon, Evans, and Gipson are fringe top-100 prospects who could fall to Day 3 of the draft, and in turn, would be more appealing to the Lions. It’s a lot easier to justify putting them in a rotation at this draft cost, while all three have the upside to be heavily involved in 2020. If I had to venture a guess, one of these three backs will be a Lion on April 25th.
Robinson would fall into the late Day 3 category and would most likely be considered in the same range as Hasty (passed burst rate), Kelley (passed speed score), and Anderson (passed burst score) who were all on the Lions roster at the Senior Bowl. These backs are more specialists at this stage of their development and would compete with Ty Johnson for time.
There are always exceptions to the rule — J.K. Dobbins didn’t test at the Combine and is therefore not on any list here — but the Lions are typically very consistent in the types of athlete they target at running back. If they add a running back in the draft, expect them to be a QIB qualifier.