The Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) and Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) meet Saturday in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Kickoff is at 12 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Kentucky vs. Iowa odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
A lot of bowl games feature high-powered offenses with a lot of points being put up. This will not be one of those games. Neither of these teams had a good offense this season. And this was before opting outs and transfers decimated the offenses for this game.
Kentucky, which averaged 22.1 points per game to rank 105th in the nation, will play this game without QB Will Levis as he gets ready to be a possible first-round NFL Draft pick in April. RB Chris Rodriguez (904 yards rushing, 6 TDs) will also be sitting out of this game.
Iowa starting QB Spencer Petras and backup Alex Padilla have both decided to skip this game and intend to transfer. This will severely limit an already inept Hawkeyes offense even more. Iowa ranked 123rd in scoring at 17.4 PPG.
Iowa will rely on its elite defense — 6th-best in points allowed at 14.4 per game — to win this game. It is by far the best unit in this game and with players like LB Jack Campbell and DB Riley Moss playing their final games wearing the Black and Gold, the Hawkeyes will be rearing to go.
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Kentucky vs. Iowa odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Kentucky +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Iowa -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Kentucky +2.5 (-108) | Iowa -2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 31 (O: -109 | U: -111)
Kentucky vs. Iowa picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa 17, Kentucky 9
Moneyline
PASS.
With this game being so low scoring, Iowa -135 is not a crazy wager. At -2.5, it’s a tougher wager on the spread. But one I am willing to make as without Levis and Rodriguez, I do not see Kentucky scoring in this game. Therefore, although Iowa -135 is okay, I would rather pass and play the spread.
Against the spread
BET IOWA -2.5 (-112).
Both teams will find it difficult to score. The only difference is that not all of Iowa’s weapons have opted out. They will still have TE Sam LaPorta (53 receptions) and RB Kaleb Johnson (762 yards rushing, 6 TDs). The Hawkeyes will score just enough and its elite defense will hold Kentucky down enough to cover this spread. Iowa -2.5 (-112) is the play in a soggy Nashville.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 31 (-111).
It does not matter that this is the lowest total of the entire season in college football. It is still not low enough. Remember the 7-3 Iowa victory over South Dakota State to start the season? This was not a TD and an FG. It was 2 FG and 2 safeties. Iowa has a bad offense. Kentucky’s could be even worse without Levis and Rodriguez. Iowa will get a defensive TD in this game. It could even get 2. But those will be the only TDs scored and the rest will be field goals and punts. Under 31 (-111) is my favorite play in this game.
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