The Utah State Aggies (9-3, 6-2 in Mountain West) face the No. 19 San Diego State Aztecs (11-1, 7-1) in the Mountain West Conference Championship Saturday. The kickoff from Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Utah State vs. San Diego State odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Utah State advanced to its first Mountain West title game since 2013 under first-year head coach Blake Anderson.
Aggies junior transfer QB Logan Bonner has the third-best passer efficiency rating in the conference (154.9) and First-Team All-Mountain West WR Deven Thompkins leads the conference in all major receiving stats. Utah State is 8-4 ATS and 5-7 O/U.
San Diego State is seeking its first 12-win season in school history under second-year head coach Brady Hoke. The Aztecs have the best defense in the conference and the most First-Team All-Mountain West selections. The Aztecs are 6-5-1 ATS and 5-7 O/U.
Utah State at San Diego State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Utah State +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | San Diego State -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Utah State +5.5 (-107) | San Diego State -5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Utah State at San Diego State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 24, Utah State 14
Money line
PASS since I like the Aztecs to win this game outright but San Diego State (-240) is a little too expensive.
Against the spread
BET SAN DIEGO STATE -5.5 (-115) for 1 unit because Utah State’s offense is too one-dimensional for this stout Aztec defense.
For instance, the Aggies’ rushing attack ranks 122nd out of 130 FBS programs in predicted points added (PPA) on the ground. Also, Utah State’s offense has the seventh-worst rushing success rate in the nation and is 117th in line yards per snap.
Conversely, San Diego State’s defense ranks third in rushing PPA, seventh in rushing success rate and 11th in line yards per snap. If Utah State cannot run the ball then San Diego State will get the Aggies off the field fast.
The Aztecs are top-20 in passing down PPA and success rate and have the seventh-best opponent’s 3rd-down conversion rate. Furthermore, this San Diego State defense is stacked with talent. In fact, the Aztecs have an All-Mountain West Football First-Team defensive player on all three levels.
Over/Under
BET 1 unit on the UNDER 49.5 (-107) because there’s only been a combined 50 points scored in one of San Diego State’s eight conference games this year. Also, the Aztecs are 2-6 O/U vs. Mountain West teams.
And while San Diego State has one of the most efficient defenses in the country, its offense is the weak link. For example, the Aztecs rank 97th in offensive points per drive and 117th in offensive points per play, according to Football Outsiders.
Lastly, the Utah State-San Diego State total was quickly lowered after early sharp money came in on the Under. Circa Sports in Las Vegas (a market-making sportsbook) opened this game with a 51.5-point total before the market steamed it down to the current number.
For me, there’s still value in the UNDER 49.5 (-107) based on the previous analysis.
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