Moore’s play-calling resembles Linehan, are Cowboys avoiding Dak runs?

First-half snaps under center

Dallas ran 36 plays in the first half. Prescott was under center for 17 snaps and in the shotgun for 19.

Of those 17 snaps from under center:

• nine were rushes
• one was a straight drop-back pass
• six were play-action passes
• one was run off play-action

First-half shotgun snaps

Of the 19 shotgun snaps:

• three were rushes
• 15 were passes
• one was a play-action pass

Dallas was balanced in the first half in terms of formation (17 snaps from under center and 19 in shotgun) and the run/pass distribution (12 runs, 16 passes, and seven play-action passes and one play-action run).

A few more things stand out.

First, Moore is back to using play-action on a regular basis. Almost 20% of the first-half plays were play-action passes and 44% of the passes came off play-action. If you include the play-action run, then 22% of all first-half plays utilized play-action.

Second, unlike some of the previous games, Dallas only attempted one play-action run: it was a handoff to wide receiver Tavon Austin. The Cowboys seem to have gotten away from calling running plays for Prescott in recent weeks. One has to wonder if all the big hits Prescott’s takes in the pocket have caused Moore and company to be more reluctant to design intentional running plays for their quarterback.

Third, despite all the condemnation from the fans that Moore stubbornly sent running back Ezekiel Elliot in to a “brick wall” repeatedly, the Cowboys were not unsuccessful running the ball in the first half. Elliot had 37 yards on 12 carries, which is more than 3 yards a rush. That is far from spectacular, but it isn’t horrendous either.

Fourth, when criticizing Moore’s play calling, many people seemed to forget how the first two offensive drives ended. Both drives saw consecutive incomplete passes on second and six, and then again on third and six. That is two drives than ended when they couldn’t gain six yards on two pass attempts.

Snaps from the under center in the second half

Dallas ran 35 plays in the second half. Prescott was under center for three snaps and in the shotgun for 32.

Of the three snaps that Prescott took under center:

• two runs
• one play-action pass

Second-half shotgun snaps

Of the 32 plays from the shotgun:

• six were runs
• 19 were pass attempts
• seven were play-action passes

The Cowboys’ offense lacked any semblance of balance in the second half in terms of formation (3 snaps from under center and 32 from the shotgun) or run/pass distribution (eight runs, 19 passes, and eight play-action passes). As mentioned above, despite having success with it in previous games, Moore called no rushing attempts off play-action.

This column rarely professes to have answers, but it does posit questions. In the second half, the Cowboys ran the ball eight times and threw it 27 times.

Could they have passed more and not have become completely one dimensional?

Are the Cowboys good enough to throw the ball effectively if they become one dimensional and the defense knows they are going to throw?

Totals for game

Dallas ran 71 plays on offense.

Moore called 21 rushing plays:

• 11 from under center
• nine from from the shotgun
• one of play-action from under center

Moore called 50 passes:

• one from under center
• seven off play-action from under center
• 34 from the shotgun
• eight passes off play-action from the shotgun

Conclusions

Calling a balanced game for the Cowboys is a bit different than some other NFL teams. It is not as simple as looking at the run/pass ratio. That is definitely part of it, and I would argue that Dallas should be much closer to 60% passing than 70%. But that is only part of the equation because of the infrequency with which Dak Prescott takes a snap from under center and attempts a pass.

This season, Prescott has sometimes thrown three, and on fewer occasions four, passes a game after taking the snap from under center, but he averages less than 2.5 drop-back passes a game. Moreover, there is a tendency for some of these throws to be quick screen-type plays to the wide receiver. In previous years, it was unusual for Dak to attempt more than two passes a game after starting under center. Against the Vikings, Prescott threw just one pass after taking the snap from under center.

Given these “limitations”, being balanced for the Cowboys means not running too frequently when Prescott is under center and not throwing every time he is in the shotgun.

Prescott has officially attempted 319 passes in 2019. However, if you include, as this analysis does, plays called back for penalties, scrambles of designed passes, and sacks, then Moore has called 352 passing plays. Of those 352 passing plays, Prescott has dropped back from center and attempted to throw the ball a mere 22 times. That means that 6.25% of Moore’s calls for a pass attempt have been based on Prescott taking the snap under center.

In other words, 93.7% of Moore’s pass calls have been from the shotgun or off play-action. From a different angle: of the 352 passing plays that Moore has called in 2019, 297 of them have come out of the shotgun (84.3%).

Last week, this column lauded Moore and his play calling for finally getting away from the predictable trends that were a mainstay under former offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. He was infamous for calling runs on more than 80% of the plays that Prescott took the snap from under center and calling passes on more than 80% of the plays that Prescott started in the shotgun.

You can click here to get the stats on how Moore’s numbers compare to Linehan for each of the first eight games. (It is near the end of the post.)

In Week 9 against the Giants, Dallas ran the ball on 15 of 26 snaps when Prescott was under center (57.6%); they attempted a pass on 67% of the plays that Prescott was in the shotgun (29 of 43). That is fantastic balance because it makes it impossible for the defense to know whether they are likely to pass or run based solely on the formation.

This week, Dallas ran the ball on 12 of the 20 plays that started with Prescott under center (60%). That is good balance. But, they attempted a pass on 42 of the 51 shotgun snaps (82.3%). That percentage is more like Scott Linehan, and it comes dangerously close to being predictable.

Miscellaneous Observations

• The Vikings drive in the 3rd quarter that featured 10 straight runs (including the two-point conversion) was a genuine game changer.
• It seemed like the Vikings ran similar type screens over and over again for big gains. Genuine question: is the failure to adjust to this play after seeing it at least 4 times also on Jason Garrett, or is the players or the defensive coaches?
• Since 2018, Dallas is 9-1 against teams in the NFC East and just 6-9 against the rest of the NFL. Five of those victories came against teams with losing records (Lions were 6-10, Jaguars were 5-11, Falcons were 7-9, Buccaneers were 5-11, and the Dolphins are 2-7). Other than the Eagles, their only victories against teams with winning records were the Saints last year and the Seahawks in the playoffs.
• The Vikings were 8 of 14 on third-down conversions (57%). Opposing offenses are converting third downs just 30.91% of the time against the Cowboys defense (34-110). Dallas owns the third best third-down defense in the league (after New England and San Francisco).
• Dallas was an impressive 9-15 on their own third-down attempts (60%). They are now 55-107 on the season (51%). That makes them the best in the NFL at converting third downs.
• The Cowboys were 0-2 on fourth-down attempts. On the season, Dallas ranks 30th in the league on fourth down; they convert just 20% of those attempts.

The games don’t get much easier for the Cowboys in the coming weeks: they face the Detroit Lions this week before squaring off against two tough AFC opponents in the Patriots and Bills.

You can follow on Twitter @CJosephWright.