The Minnesota Twins (47-38) face the Texas Rangers (37-43) Friday for their 3-game series opener at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Minnesota is 5-5 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games but has won back-to-back 3-game series vs. the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox.
Texas was swept in a 3-game set at the Orioles Monday-Wednesday and the Rangers are just 3-7 SU in the last 10.
First meeting this season. The Twins were 4-3 SU vs. the Rangers last year but they were even in runs scored (27-27) for those meetings.
Twins at Rangers projected starters
RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Jon Gray
S. Gray is 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 54 2/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Minnesota’s 4-3 home win vs. the Orioles Saturday with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 road splits: 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 12 K in 4 starts.
J. Gray is 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 77 1/3 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: Lost 4-1 Sunday at the New York Mets with 5 2/3 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 6 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
- 2022 home splits: 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 15 H, 2 HR, 4 BB and 25 K in 3 starts.
Twins at Rangers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:44 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Twins -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Rangers +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+133) | Rangers +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Twins at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Rangers 2
Money line
BET the TWINS (-125) because they have edges in the starting pitching matchup and hitting right-handed pitching and there’s been sharp line movement headed towards Minnesota in the betting market.
S. Gray has been on a tear over his last 7 starts (4-0 with a 2.03 ERA) and grades higher than J. Gray in several advanced pitching metrics such as expected ERA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and exit velocity, per Statcast.
Also, Minnesota’s lineup ranks higher vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (115-92), wOBA (.329-.295), BB/K rate (0.39-0.30), ISO (.178-.1144) and hard-hit rate (34.6-31.5%), according to FanGraphs.
Finally, the Twins have been bet from a -109 opening favorite up to the current number per Pregame.com.
Let’s follow the money and BET TWINS (-125).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Twins -1.5 (+133) isn’t a big enough payout considering they are just 10-14 RL as road favorites while the Rangers +1.5 (-165) are 15-7 RL as home underdogs.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+100) because S. Gray has been lights out lately and there’s reverse line movement headed south of the total since nearly 75% of the money is on the Over 7.5 (-122) but the total has been lowered from an 8-run opener, according to Pregame.com.
However, Minnesota’s ML is my favorite look in this game and the possible weather conditions are super hitter-friendly with temperatures forecasted in the low-100s and a 10 mph breeze blowing out to right-center field.
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