The Minnesota Twins (27-41) begin a three-game set on the road against the Texas Rangers (25-43) Friday. First pitch at Globe Life Field will be at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Twins RHP Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.49 ERA) enters his 14th start of the season with a 1.09 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 through 77 1/3 IP.
- 5-0 with three no-decisions and a 3.73 ERA over his last eight starts; the Twins are 7-1 in those outings.
- Has a 2.81 ERA and .626 opponent OPS through seven road starts compared to a 4.29 ERA and a .756 OPS allowed through six starts at home.
RHP Mike Foltynewicz (1-7, 5.48 ERA) also makes his 14th appearance of the season. He enters with a 1.42 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 6.1 K/9 and an AL-high 16 home runs allowed.
- Lifted after just 2 2/3 innings last Friday at the Los Angeles Dodgers after he allowed 8 runs (7 earned) with 3 HR.
- Hard-hit rate of 44.6% and fly-ball rate of 27.6% are both above MLB average and his career average.
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Twins at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:13 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Rangers +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (-105) | Rangers +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Twins 8, Rangers 3
Money line (ML)
Back the TWINS (-175) as heavy road favorites. Both teams are last in their respective division but Friday’s starting pitching matchup is skewed very heavily toward Berrios and Minnesota.
The Twins have the much more potent offense against right-handed pitching with a 10th-ranked .725 team OPS in the split compared to the Rangers’ .677 team rate. Minnesota is also third in hard-contact rate against righties and will take advantage of Foltynewicz’s home run woes.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The stronger play is to bet TWINS -1.5 (-105) for Minnesota to win by 2 or more runs.
Minnesota has been at its best with Berrios on the mound and generally pitching deep into games. Foltynewicz can’t keep baseballs in the yard and the Rangers are 4-9 when he starts.
Over/Under (O/U)
Bet OVER 8.5 (-120) with the Twins able to do most of the heavy-lifting against Foltynewicz. He is in the 19th percentile or worse in opponent hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage and average exit velocity.
Coincidentally, the Twins are 7-4 against the O/U with Berrios on the mound as the bats come out to support their ace.
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