The Minnesota Twins (31-30) and the Tampa Bay Rays (44-19) continue a 3-game series Wednesday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 1-0; Twins won 4 of 6 in 2022
The Twins had their way with the Rays last year, but that wasn’t the case in Tuesday’s series opener. Tampa Bay rolled to a 7-0 victory, limiting Minnesota to just 2 doubles, 2 singles and 2 walks. The Twins, the team with the highest strikeouts in the majors (625), adding to their league lead with 12 whiffs against Rays pitchers.
The Rays have rattled off 4 consecutive victories, winning by 2 or more in each of the outings as a favorite. The pitching staff has limited the opposition to just 5 total runs during the span, and the Under has cashed in each of the contests.
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Twins at Rays projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Shawn Armstrong
Lopez (3-3, 4.54 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 71 1/3 innings
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 7-6 road win vs. the Cleveland Guardians last Thursday
- 2023 road splits: 1-2, 3.00 ERA (36 IP, 12 ER – 6 HR) with 9 BB, 44 K and a .211 opponent batting average (OBA) in 6 starts
Armstrong (0-0, 0.00 ERA) has made just 1 relief appearance this season, allowing a walk with 3 strikeouts in 2 relief innings at Boston on June 4.
- Has made 3 career starts, all in 2022 with the Rays as an opener
- Faced the Twins last season on June 11, allowing 2 H, 1 BB with 2 K in 2 scoreless IP in a relief appearance at Target Field in Minneapolis
Twins at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Rays -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-165) | Rays -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Twins at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Rays 3
Moneyline
The TWINS (+120) are a solid play at plus-money against an opener with just 1 previous appearance this season.
Minnesota had the number of Tampa Bay last season, and the Rays (-145) cannot be trusted with Armstrong serving as the opener, followed by a bullpen with a 4.29 ERA, which ranks 11th in the American League with 29 HR and 116 BB allowed.
Run line/Against the spread
The TWINS +1.5 (-165) aren’t priced out of line if you require a little bit of insurance, and you just cannot bring yourself to play Minnesota straight up against the red-hot Rays -1.5 (+140).
Yes, Tampa Bay has won and covered the run line as a favorite in 4 in a row, but Lopez is a pretty effective pitcher, especially on the road, and I just don’t like the opener situation for the home side, before a lengthy bullpen game.
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Over/Under
The UNDER 8.5 (+100) at even-money is a solid play.
The Under has hit in 4 in a row for the Twins, while going 5-1 in the past 6 tries in Game 2 of a series.
The Under has also connected in 4 in a row for the Rays, while going 4-0 in the past 4 contests against a right-handed starting pitcher, too. The Under is 4-1 in the previous 5 following a victory, as well.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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