The Minnesota Twins (31-29) and the Tampa Bay Rays (43-19) open a 3-game series Tuesday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Twins won season series 4-2 in 2022
The Twins won the 1st 2 games of a 4-game set at Target Field against the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend, but they lost the final 2 contests for the series split. The Under has cashed in each of the past 3 outings, as Minnesota has been limited to just 4 runs of offense while allowing 6 runs.
The Rays suffered an 8-5 loss in the opener of a 4-game series against the Boston Red Sox on Saturday, but they bounced back to win the final 3 outings. Tampa Bay has scored 4 or more runs in 5 straight outings, averaging 4.6 runs per game during the stretch. The Under is 6-1 in the past 7 games overall for the Rays.
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Twins at Rays projected starters
RHP Louie Varland vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Varland (3-1, 3.51 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 41 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in an 8-2 road win vs. the Houston Astros Wednesday
- 2023 Road splits: 2-0, 3.57 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 9 ER) with 5 BB, 23 K and a .258 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts
Eflin (7-1, 3.30 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 60 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 4-3 road win vs. the Chicago Cubs Wednesday
- 2023 Home splits: 6-0, 2.19 ERA (37 IP, 9 ER) with a .207 OBA in 6 starts
Twins at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rays -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-140) | Rays -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Twins at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Twins 2
Moneyline
The RAYS (-175) are a little on the pricey side, but they’re still under my personal limit for a singular moneyline bet of -180.
Tampa Bay has ripped off 9 wins in the past 10 tries against the AL Central, while cashing in 19 of the past 26 series openers.
The Twins have dropped 6 of their past 8 series openers while going a dismal 0-5 in the previous 5 after a scheduled day off.
Run line/Against the spread
The RAYS -1.5 (+115) are a decent play at plus money. Tampa Bay has won and covered the run line in the past 3 games as a favorite while going 7-5 in the past 12 games.
The Twins are just 3-4 in the past 7 games as an underdog on the run line.
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Over/Under
The UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean in this series opener under the roof.
The Under has cashed in 7 of the past 9 games for Minnesota after a scheduled day off.
The Under is 6-1 in the past 7 games overall for the Rays, while cashing in 5 of their past 6 tries against a right-handed starting pitcher. The Under has also hit in 4 of the past 5 home contests after a road trip or 7 or more days.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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