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The Minnesota Twins (45-36) and Seattle Mariners (46-37) open a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 3-1
The Twins took 3 of 4 games from the Mariners May 6-9 in Minneapolis, with the Over cashing in each of the final 3 meetings. The underdog cashed in the first 3 meetings of the series, with Minnesota (-110) winning the finale, in what was essentially a pick ’em.
Minnesota is 4-2 on the current 9-game road trip which wraps up in the Pacific Northwest with this series. The Twins won 2 of 3 in Oakland, and 2 of 3 in Arizona, including a 13-6 win Thursday against the Diamondbacks as slight road favorites (-112) as the Over (8.5) easily hit.
The Mariners were roughed up on a recent road trip, losing 2 of 3 in Cleveland, dropping 2 of 3 in Miami and falling in 2 of 3 at Tampa Bay. The last time the M’s were home, though, they swept the defending champ Texas Rangers June 14-16. In fact, the Mariners are 15-3 in the past 18 games at home.
Twins at Mariners projected starters
RHP Bailey Ober vs. RHP Logan Gilbert
Ober (7-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 82 innings.
- Last start: Win, 9 IP, 2 ER, 4 H (2 solo HR), 0 BB, 10 K in 10-2 victory at Oakland A’s Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 4-3, 5.07 ERA (49 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.11 WHIP, .237 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 8 HR, 11 BB, 46 K in 9 starts
- Career vs. Mariners: 2-0, 4.05 ERA (20 IP, 9 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 3 HR, 9.9 K/9 in 4 starts
- 2024 vs. Mariners, 1 start, no-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 10-6 home loss May 7
Gilbert (5-4, 2.71 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 0.89 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 106 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 9-0 victory at Miami Marlins Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 2-2, 2.66 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.80 WHIP, .185 OBA, 5 HR, 7 BB, 52 K in 7 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 2-1, 4.95 ERA (20 IP, 11 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 4 starts
- 2024 vs. Twins: 1 start, loss, 4 IP, 8 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 11-1 road defeat May 9
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mariners -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-210) | Mariners -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Twins at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Twins 3
Moneyline
The MARINERS (-125) are back home after a rough trip, and hopefully that will snap them back into winning form.
Seattle had a rough go on the road trip, going 3-6, but it has been money at home, with 15 wins in the past 18 outings. Gilbert has had solid numbers at T-Mobile Park, but expect this to be a close shave, as Obert has been pitching with a lot of confidence for the Twins lately.
Run line/Against the spread
The Twins +1.5 (-210) are just a little too expensive if you want to dip your toe into the water on this game, but can’t bet Minnesota straight up. It’s risky betting against the Mariners at T-Mobile Park, but this insurance is a little too pricey.
AVOID.
Over/Under
PASS.
With a pair of solid pitchers on the mound for this series opener, my prediction has this total falling right on the number for a push.
The Over went 6-1-2 in the 9-game road trip for the Mariners, but the Under is 4-1-1 in their past 6 home games. If there was a lean, it might be Under, but this is an awfully low number.
The Over is 6-1 in the past 7 games for the Twins, including 5-1 on the first 6 of this road trip. However, the Under is 4-2 in Ober’s past 6 starts.
The trends are all over the board, and this is a good PASS.
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