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The New York Yankees (44-19) welcome the Minnesota Twins (33-28) to Yankee Stadium Thursday for the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Yankees lead 5-0
The Yankees have won and covered every game in the series — and in every game in the season series. They beat the Twins 5-1 Tuesday and then 9-5 Wednesday.
New York is 20-8 at home this season and has won 7 in a row. It has scored at least 5 runs in 6 straight games. The Yankees sit atop the AL East and are 37-25 against the spread (ATS).
The Twins are 17-15 on the road and have struggled as of late, losing 3 of their last 4. They are still 5-4 over their last 9 and sit in 3rd place in the AL Central. Minnesota is 27-34 ATS.
Twins at Yankees projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Marcus Stroman
Lopez (5-5, 4.84 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 67 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 6-1 road win over the Houston Astros Friday
- 2024 road splits: 3-2, 5.03 ERA (34 IP, 19 ER), 30 H, 8 HR, 6 BB, 40 K in 6 starts
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-2, 2.95 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 3 starts
Stroman (5-2, 2.73 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 69 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in a 6-2 road win over the San Francisco Giants Friday
- 2024 home splits: 1-2, 3.38 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 29 H, 6 HR, 14 BB, 36 K in 6 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 2-4, 4.95 ERA (40 IP, 22 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 7 starts
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Twins at Yankees odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:52 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Yankees -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-162) | Yankees -1.5 (+134)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Twins at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Twins 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Yankees are just too steep here to suggest taking them outright on the moneyline. They have dominated the Twins this season and this series and have performed well at home, so take the home side on the run line for the better value.
Run line/Against the spread
BET YANKEES -1.5 (+134).
The Yankees are on fire right on and have been rewarding bettors at a high rate. They have won their last 2 games against the Twins a combined 14-6 and have covered in both. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games, losing 2 and winning just 1 by 1.
New York has covered in 3 of Stroman’s last 4 starts as well, including a 4-0 win at Minnesota on May 15. The Yankees are 15-13 ATS as a home favorite while Minnesota is just 16-16 ATS, which ranks in the bottom half of the league, as a road underdog.
Take New York to cover and back YANKEES -1.5 (+134).
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-105).
New York has been dominant because its offense has been red hot. The Yankees have gone north of the total in 5 of their last 6 games, scoring at least 5 in all 6 and allowing at least 3 in 4 of the 6 games.
The Twins have gone Over in just 2 of their last 6, but they have scored at least 4 in 4 of those. Both offenses have consistently produced as of late. Back OVER 8.5 (-105).
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