The Minnesota Twins (10-4) and New York Yankees (8-6) meet Saturday to continue their 4-game series. The first pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 2-0.
Minnesota clubbed the Yanks 11-2 in Thursday’s series opener. Minnesota had 5 doubles and 4 HRs in that game. Then the Twins got a big, 8th-inning 2-run double by SS Carlos Correa to vault them past New York 4-3 Friday.
The Yankees went 5-2 against the Twins last season and 6-1 against them in 2021. New York, a dominant 57-24 team at home last season, is 1-3 with a .624 OPS over its last 4 games at Yankee Stadium.
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Twins at Yankees projected starters
RHP Tyler Mahle vs. RHP Domingo German
Mahle (1-1, 4.09 ERA) is making his 3rd start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 11 IP.
- Logged a 4.40 ERA in 120 2/3 IP last season (pitched for the Cincinnati Reds and Twins)
- Has at least 6 K’s in both starts thus far
German (0-1, 5.87 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 7 2/3 IP.
- Did not issue a walk in his 1st start but threw only 49 of his 87 pitches for strikes and walked 5 in start No. 2
- Owns a 4.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 421 1/3 career IP
Twins at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Twins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Yankees -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-185) | Yankees -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Twins at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Yankees 3
Moneyline
New York has really had Minnesota’s number in past years, but the Twins have a golden opportunity to take this series. And to do so Saturday.
Mahle is the better starting hurler; he has been hurt by a .429 batting average on balls in play so far. He does much better than German in limiting hard, barreled contact. German’s form thus far has been lackluster. His problems with home runs have hurt him more at home than on the road in recent seasons.
The Minnesota lineup is a bit banged up, but so is New York’s bullpen, which is missing key pieces in Jonathan Loaisiga and Lou Trevino. closer Clay Holmes and top lefty Wandy Peralta have each pitched 2 of the last 3 days.
TWINS (+110) is a Saturday play with some value attached.
Run line/Against the spread
AVOID.
The juice here makes for a lofty price on the value team.
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Over/Under
The Over is 17-5-1 in the last 23 meetings between these clubs in New York.
The high side of the total was the play the last 2 days at Yankee Stadium. But the wind shifts in Saturday’s forecast. A cooler day with a decent chance of rain and a breeze in the batter’s face is in the forecast.
The Minnesota offense is in fade territory. Mahle figures as an Under agent as well.
PASS. An Under 8.5 priced at -105 would be perhaps worth some partial-unit action.
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