The Minnesota Twins (9-4) and New York Yankees (8-5) meet Friday to continue their 4-game series. The first pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 1-0.
Minnesota went into this set off back-to-back wins in pitchers’ duels. Then the Twins clobbered the Yanks 11-2 in Thursday’s lid-lifter. Minnesota had 5 doubles and 4 HRs in the opener.
The Yankees went 5-2 against the Twins last season and 6-1 against them in 2021. But they were out of Thursday’s game from the outset. RHP Jhony Brito was lit up in a 9-run 1st inning. New York did well to avoid any key bullpen arms in playing out its worst defeat (margin) since Sept. 2.
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Twins at Yankees projected starters
RHP Louie Varland vs. LHP Nestor Cortes
Varland is making his 1st start of the season. The 25-year-old clocked a 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 26 IP over 5 starts last season.
- Has pitched 5 IP at Triple-A this season; in his career he has pitched just 52 1/3 IP above Double-A.
- Struggled in spring training, allowing 5 runs (2 HR) in 4 IP
Cortes (2-0, 2.61 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 10 1/3 IP.
- Has a 2.14 ERA, 0.91 WHIP at home the last 3 years (2021-23)
- Current Minnesota batters own an aggregate .797 OPS against him
Twins at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Twins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Yankees -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-125) | Yankees -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Twins at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Twins 4
Moneyline
New York has really had Minnesota’s number in past years, but peg the true odds here as trapped between these prices. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
STEER CLEAR.
Again, the at-home Yanks (57-24 at Yankee Stadium last season) are a lean. The Twins figure to be a bit too far over their skis so far based on run-scoring and defense-support analytics. New York -1.5 would have some value at +115 or better.
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Over/Under
The Over is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these clubs in New York.
Varland introduces plenty of gray area here but has no reason to come in with loads of confidence. Cortes has allowed a mere .241 batting average on balls in play the last 2 seasons (2022-23). Both bullpens have excellent early-season numbers so far — both have also been BABIP-aided in those efforts.
The Over was the play Thursday and is in Friday’s game as well. On an 80-degree night with a breeze blowing out to left, even if Cortes continues to confound with his hard-contact-stifling stuff, the Yankees could well Bronx Bomber their way nearly to this total.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-115).
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