The Minnesota Twins (1-1) play the Milwaukee Brewers (1-1) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Sunday’s meeting is the rubber match of this three-game set. The Twins won a pitcher’s duel 2-0 Saturday to even the series. The Brewers took Thursday’s opener 6-5 in 10 innings.
Minnesota LHP Jose Berrios pitched six perfect innings with 12 strikeouts Saturday before turning it over to the bullpen, which eventually lost the no-hitter and perfect game but held on for the win.
Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes also flirted with a no-hit bid. He didn’t allow a hit until Twins CF Byron Buxton‘s solo homer in the top of the 6th, which ended up being Burnes’ final batter.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
RHP Michael Pineda takes the hill Sunday for the Twins. Pineda was 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 26 2/3 IP across 5 starts in 2020.
He didn’t make his first start last season until Sept. 1 because he was serving a 60-game suspension that started in 2019.
- Last start vs. Brewers: No-decision (6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 6 K, 0 BB) in a 5-4 loss May 27, 2019.
- 2021 Spring Training: 0-0 with a 7.04 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 14 H, 10 K, 1 BB) in 2 starts.
RHP Adrian Houser makes his first start of the season for the Brewers. 2020 was a rough year for Houser, who was 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 56 IP over 12 games (11 starts).
- 2020 vs. Twins: 0-1 with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 K and 1 BB in 1 start.
- 2021 Spring Training: 1-0 with a 5.60 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 11 ER, 21 H, 16 K, 6 BB) across 6 starts.
RISK-FREE FIRST BET! Place your legal, online MLB bets at BetMGM Sportsbook in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offer, terms and conditions apply. Bet now!
Twins at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (+140) | Brewers +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Brewers 6, Twins 3
Money line (ML)
Bet BREWERS (-105) for 1 unit because I favor Milwaukee’s Houser over Minnesota’s Pineda in the starting pitching matchup.
Twins DH Nelson Cruz had an impressive plus-12 run value vs. sinkers last season and Houser’s most used pitch is a sinker. Since the Brew Crew are the home team, this game is played under National League rules, which doesn’t have a DH. Because Cruz doesn’t play the field, the only chance Minnesota has at using him is as a pinch hitter.
Plus, there are a few indicators Houser could have a bounce-back season in 2021.
Houser’s FIP was only slightly lower than his ERA, but his BABIP was high (.325), which is a luck-based metric, and Houser’s hard-hit percentage, exit velocity and fly-ball rate are far lower than MLB averages.
Finally, I think Pineda will pitch closer to his 2021 Spring Training form this season—which was poor—than his awesome 2020 regular-season performance.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a “LEAN” on Brewers +1.5 (-165) because I could be into a parlay with Milwaukee’s run line and another run line or a favorite’s money line to get an even- or plus-money payout.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because despite being very confident in Milwaukee’s pitching staff there’s just too wide a range of outcomes for Pineda. If 2020 Pineda is on the mound, I’d bet the Under but I’m staying away from this total.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]