The Kansas City Royals (4-5) host the Minnesota Twins (4-7) for the second game of their three-game set at Kauffman Stadium with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
K.C. beat Minnesota 4-3 in the series opener Tuesday thanks to a 2-run bottom of the 6th inning rally featuring solo home runs by Royals DH Salvador Perez and 1B Hunter Dozier.
Season series: Royals lead 1-0.
Twins at Royals: Projected starters
RHP Chris Paddack vs. LHP Daniel Lynch
Paddack (0-1, 6.75 ERA) took a 7-0 loss last Wednesday to the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first start of the season. He had 4 IP with 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
- This is Paddack’s first career start versus K.C. since he pitched for the San Diego Padres to start his career from 2019-21.
Lynch (0-1, 10.80 ERA) lost at the St. Louis Cardinals 6-5 April 12 with 5 IP surrendering 6 ER with 9 H, 1 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. Twins: No-decision in K.C.’s 6-4 victory over the Minnesota Twins Sept. 10 in his rookie season. He went 6 IP, allowing 4 ER on 7 H and 0 BB with 4 K.
- vs. Twins on the current roster: 4.60 FIP with a .250 batting average, .294 wOBA, .453 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 15.0 K% and 86.5 mph exit velocity (EV) in 20 plate appearances.
Twins at Royals and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Twins -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Royals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+125) | Royals +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Twins at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 5, Twins 3
Money line
BET 1 unit on the ROYALS (+105) because K.C. has a massive advantage in the pitching department. Lynch is a former first-round draft pick and one of the best young arms in the Royals’ organization.
I’m not worried about Lynch’s performance versus the Twins last season because all of his 4 ER in that game were off of 2 home runs from Twins players that aren’t in Wednesday’s lineup (an injured CF Byron Buxton and former 3B Josh Donaldson).
On the other hand, Paddack relies on mostly two pitches and ranked in the bottom-20th percentile in hard-hit rate, EV and xSLG in 2020-21, according to Statcast.
K.C.’s bullpen also ranks 10th in WAR and 13th in xFIP since the start of last season while Minnesota’s 23rd in both WAR and xFIP, per FanGraphs.
The Twins struggle versus left-handed pitching and 22-39 versus lefty starters since last year. Minnesota’s lineup is 23rd in wOBA and 20th in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching over that span.
BET the ROYALS (+105).
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Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the ROYALS -1.5 (+195) ALTERNATE RL because I think the wrong team is favored here and the gap between K.C. and Minnesota’s pitching is wide enough for the Royals to win by 2 or more runs.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (+110) because K.C.’s lineup has struggled with right-handed pitching as much as Minnesota’s has versus lefties since the beginning of last season.
K.C. is 0-4 O/U in the last 4 home games, Minnesota is 0-3-1 O/U in the last 4 road games versus teams with a losing record and the total is 1-3-1 O/U in the last 5 Twins-Royals meetings.
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