The Minnesota Twins (28-27) and Houston Astros (32-22) play the finale of a 3-game set Wednesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 3-2
The Twins were overmatched Tuesday as the Astros evened the series at 1 with a 5-1 victory. RHP Joe Ryan allowed 5 ER over 4 innings, and that was too much to overcome for the favored Twins. Minnesota is just 4-6 and 9-11 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively.
Houston 3B Alex Bregman had 2 hits, including a home run, and 2 RBIs Tuesday to lead the offense. The Astros scored all 5 runs in the 2nd and 3rd innings and did not tack on. Houston is 7-3 over the last 10 and 15-5 over the last 20 games as it’s starting to get healthy and fire on all cylinders.
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Twins at Astros projected starters
RHP Louie Varland vs. RHP Hunter Brown
Varland (2-1, 4.24 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 34 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K, vs. Toronto Blue Jays Friday
- 1-0 with a 5.17 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 3 road starts this year vs. 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 3 home starts
- First career appearance vs. Houston
Brown (5-1, 3.12 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 57 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K vs. Oakland Athletics Friday
- 1 career start vs. Minnesota: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K in a 5-1 road win on April 9
Twins at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:18 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Astros -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-135) | Astros -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Twins at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Twins 3
Moneyline
We cashed 2 of the 3 bets here Tuesday, as felt well on track for the 3rd after 5 of the 8-run total were scored in the first 3 frames before the power left the bats. There is a very large market correction here as Houston went from +100 Tuesday to -185 Wednesday. The Twins are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings vs. Houston and 6-14 in the last 20 in Houston.
We’ll PASS on the moneyline and put together a small parlay. Brown has at least 8 K’s in his last 3 starts, and he struck out the Twins 7 times in his lone start against them. Minnesota has the highest whiff rate in baseball at 10.18 per game. So let’s go with SAME GAME PARLAY: ASTROS ML + BROWN 6+ STRIKEOUTS (-120) at a much more reasonable rate.
Run line/Against the spread
The Twins are 28-27 (14-13 on the road) on the RL, and the Astros are 28-26 (12-15 at home). Six of Houston’s 7 wins over the last 10 games have been by 2 or more runs. Houston has the advantage in the bullpen with the 3rd-best ERA at 3.07 as Minnesota sits in 8th with a 3.59 ERA.
I’ll back the ASTROS -1.5 (+110).
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Over/Under
The wind is blowing out to left-center field at 7 mph on a humid 85-degree day. Houston has scored at least 5 runs in 6 of the last 7 against the Twins and 8 of 10.
These teams have alternated Over and Under the last 6 games against one another. Tuesday went Under, so I’ll LEAN OVER 8 (-120).
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