The Minnesota Twins (27-26) open a 3-game series with the Houston Astros (31-21) Monday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Twins lead 2-1
The Twins took 2 of 3 games from the Astros in a 3-game series at Target Field in Minneapolis from April 7-9. It was a fairly evenly matched series, with both teams totaling 13 runs in the set.
The Twins lost 2 of 3 games against the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend, and are just 4-8 in the past 12 games with 4 consecutive series losses. Minnesota sits in 1st place in the American League Central Division despite its recent nosedive.
Houston picked up a 3-game series sweep on the road against the Oakland Athletics over the weekend, outscoring the lowly A’s by a 21-6 count. The Astros have picked up victories in 14 of the past 17 outings, including an 8-3 mark in their last 11 games on the road.
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Twins at Astros projected starters
RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP J.P. France
Gray (4-0, 1.82 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 54 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in a 4-3 home loss vs. the San Francisco Giants Tuesday
- 2023 Road splits: 1-0, 2.84 ERA (19 IP, 6 ER) with a .250 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts
- 2023 vs. Houston: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 13 K in a 3-2 extra-inning win on April 7
France (1-1, 3.43 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 21 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in a 6-0 road loss vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday
- 2023 Home splits: 0-0, 14.73 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 6 ER – 3 HR) with a .474 opponent batting average (OBA) in 1 start
Twins at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-190) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Twins at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Twins 3
Moneyline
The ASTROS (-125) are a solid option in the series opener.
Minnesota has managed a dismal 4-11 record in the past 15 games against AL West foes, although it did take 2 of 3 in the first series against Houston. Still, the Twins have dropped 6 straight series openers, while going 2-7 in the past 9 games against a right-handed starting pitcher.
The Twins have managed a 1-4 mark in the past 5 trips to Houston, while going 2-7 in the previous 9 tries overall against the Astros.
Run line/Against the spread
The Twins +1.5 (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return if you want a run of insurance.
That’s just too risky despite the fact Minnesota is 5-4 in the past 9 games as an underdog on the run line, including 4 outright victories.
AVOID.
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Over/Under
The UNDER 8 (-110) is the lean, although go lightly.
The total has gone low in 6 of the past 8 games for the Twins while going 5-2 in the past 7 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Under is also 7-3-1 in the past 11 series openers, too.
The Under is 16-5 in the Astro’s past 21 games against a right-handed starting pitcher, while cashing at a 6-2 clip in their past 8 games overall. The Under is also 9-4-1 in the past 14 games at home, too.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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