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The Minnesota Twins (72-66) and the Cleveland Guardians (66-72) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Tuesday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 6-5
The Twins entered Monday’s series opener having won just 4 of the first 10 meetings against the Guardians this season, but Minnesota did plenty of work on Labor Day. The Twins belted out a 20-6 victory, with 6 different players smacking homers.
Twins rookie 3B Royce Lewis socked his 3rd grand slam and 5th home run in an 8-game span. That feat puts him in an exclusive 2-player club with Lou Gehrig, who also accomplished it in 1931.
The Guardians scratched out 3 of their 6 runs in the bottom of the 9th inning when the game was already well in hand for the Twins. Cleveland is averaging a respectable 5.1 runs per game (RPG) across the past 10 outings, well above the season average of 4.1 RPG.
Twins at Guardians projected starters
RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Tanner Bibee
Gray (7-6, 2.92 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 157 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K in 5-2 home loss vs. Guardians Wednesday
- 2023 road splits: 3-3, 3.07 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 3 HR, .225 opponent batting average (OBA) in 13 starts
- 2023 vs. Cleveland: 0-1, 2.89 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1 HR, 13 K and .239 OBA in 3 starts
Bibee (10-3, 3.03 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 124 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 5-2 road win vs. Twins Wednesday
- 2023 home splits: 5-2, 2.02 ERA (58 IP, 13 ER), 2 HR, .194 OBA in 10 starts
- 2023 vs. Minnesota: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (10 IP, 5 ER), 1 HR, 14 K and .256 OBA in 2 starts
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Twins at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 3, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The TWINS (-115) broke out the hitting shoes Monday, leaving the yard frequently like it was batting practice. Minnesota should have less success against the rookie Bibee, who has been a revelation for Tito Francona in Cleveland. The right-hander will keep the Guardians in it, but the hot-hitting Twins will still get it done eventually.
Run line/Against the spread
The Guardians +1.5 (-185) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return if you like them to keep it within a single run. While it’s likely Cleveland keeps this one close in a pitcher’s duel, it’s just too much risk and not enough reward.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-115) is the lean, as Gray has tremendous splits on the road, and Bibee has done most of his very good work at home.
While it’s risky business going low on the total after Minnesota registered 20 runs on Monday, it’s the way to go. Despite the Over on Monday, the Under is still 5-2 in the past 7 meetings between these AL Central rivals.
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