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The Minnesota Twins (71-66) and the Cleveland Guardians (66-71) open a 3-game series Monday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 6-4
The Twins fell 6-5 in the series finale of a 3-game set at the Texas Rangers Sunday, failing to complete the 3-game sweep. The Over cashed in the final 2 games of the Texas series and has hit at an 8-3-1 clip in the past 12 contests overall for Minnesota.
The Guardians took 2 of 3 games from the Twins last week in Minneapolis as they continue to hang around in the AL Central. Cleveland is 5 games back of the first-place Twins with 25 regular-season games remaining.
Cleveland added veteran RHP Lucas Giolito from the Los Angeles Angels last week on waivers, and he makes his team debut.
Twins at Guardians projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Lucas Giolito
Lopez (9-7, 3.72 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 164 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 5 K in 4-2 home loss vs. Guardians Tuesday
- 2023 road splits: 5-4, 2.87 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 11 HR, .221 opponent batting average (OBA) in 14 starts
Giolito (7-11, 4.45 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 153 2/3 innings for the Chicago White Sox and Angels.
- Last start (with Angels): Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H (3 HR), 4 BB, 6 K in a 6-4 road loss vs. the Philadelphia Phillies last Monday
- 2023 home splits: 4-3, 2.53 ERA (74 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 9 HR, .186 OBA in 12 starts
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Twins at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Guardians +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+125) | Guardians +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Twins 3
The GUARDIANS (+115) are solid short ‘dogs at home in this crucial series opener.
After pulling the plug on a playoff push in late July and trading RHP Aaron Civale to the Tampa Bay Rays, the Guardians have re-engaged in the playoff race after treading water and staying afloat in August. Giolito is an innings eater who will try to help Cleveland get over the hump.
Run line/Against the spread
The GUARDIANS +1.5 (-155) are a decent play on the run line at a rather moderate and reasonable price if you’d like a little insurance.
Cleveland has got the better of the Twins in 6 of 10 meetings this season, and Giolito has had great home splits in his previous 2 stops.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-105) is the lean, but play a half-unit at most.
The Guardians have cashed the Under in 4 of the past 5 games, including the final 2 contests of the Minnesota series in the Twin Cities earlier in the week.
It’s been all about the Over for the Twins lately, but the Under has connected in 5 of the past 6 meetings with the Guardians.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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