The Minnesota Twins (19-15) and Cleveland Guardians (15-18) close out a 3-game set at Progressive Field Sunday. First pitch is at 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Twins have stalled of late, going 5-5 over the last 10 and 9-11 over the last 20 games. Runs have been hard to come by as they have plated just 3.6 per game over the last 5 games.
The Guardians snapped a 3-game losing streak with the 4-3 win Saturday. They improved to 11-2 when they score 4 or more runs. Their 17 one-run games are the most in the majors, to which they are 8-9. Cleveland is just 5-9 at home this year.
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Twins at Guardians projected starters
RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Cal Quantrill
Ryan (5-0, 2.37 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a league-leading 0.76 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP.
- Last start Tuesday vs. Chicago White Sox: 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 7 K
- Last 5 GS vs. Guardians: 3-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 26 K in 31 2/3 IP
Quantrill (1-2, 4.73 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 4.7 K/9 in 32 1/3 IP.
- Last start Monday vs. New York Yankees: 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K
- Last 5 GS vs. Minnesota: 4-0, 2.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 21 K in 32 2/3 IP
Twins at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+125) | Guardians +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The Twins are 2-10 in the last 12 meetings and 2-7 in the last 9 in Cleveland. But this is a Twins team on the come up. Ryan has quietly been one of the better starters in the AL. Cleveland doesn’t boast much of a home-field advantage with a 5-9 mark on the season.
Take the TWINS -135.
Run line/Against the spread
The Twins’ last 9 victories have been of the multiple-run variety. They have really been stingy, ranking 3rd in runs/9 (3.66), 3rd in OBA (.219), 2nd in OPS allowed (.633) and 2nd in pitcher K’s (9.87). Conversely, Cleveland scores the 3rd-fewest runs/9 at 3.62.
Take the TWINS -1.5 (+125).
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Over/Under
Cleveland is 1-9 O/U over the last 10, and rain is in the forecast Sunday. The Under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Cleveland and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings overall. The Under is 5-0 in the Guardians’ last 5 divisional games, last 5 against a righty and last 5 at home against a righty. The Twins have cashed Unders in 4 of 7. So this 8.5 looks like 18.5.
Take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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