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The Minnesota Twins (80-72) and Cleveland Guardians (88-65) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 9-3
The Twins took a 4-2 lead in the top of the 10th inning in Wednesday’s game, but the Guardians erupted for 3 runs in the bottom of the frame to escape with the 5-4 win as slight favorites (-128). OF Brayan Rocchio drove in the game-winning run.
It was a terrible way for Twins moneyline (ML) bettors to lose, but even worse for those betting the Under (7). It was 2-2 after 9 innings, but the teams combined for 5 runs in the 10th.
Minnesota is now just 5-10 across the past 15 games, while cashing the Over at a 6-1-1 pace in the previous 8 outings. The Twins are just 2-7 in the past 9 road contests, too.
Twins OF Trevor Larnach is nursing a hamstring injury, and he has been limited to DH duties in the past 6 games.
The Guardians have posted 4 wins in the past 5 outings. The miraculous Over result Wednesday was rare, as the Under was 13-1-2 in the previous 16 contests. Cleveland’s magic number now stands at 1.
Twins at Guardians projected starters
RHP Simeon Woods Richardson vs. LHP Joey Cantillo
Woods Richardson (5-5, 4.08 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 128 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 11-1 home setback vs. Cincinnati Reds Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 4-3, 4.25 ERA, 65 2/3 IP, 31 ER, 8 HR, 1.36 WHIP, .263 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 22 BB, 49 K in 14 starts
- Last 7 games: 2-3, 4.68 ERA, 32 2/3 IP, 17 ER, 15 BB, 25 K, 1.32 WHIP
- Career vs. Guardians: 0-1, 2.19 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 2 HR, 0 BB, 9 K, 0.65 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 in 2 starts
Cantillo (2-3, 4.99 ERA) makes his 7th start and 8th career appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 30 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-1 home victory vs. Tampa Bay Rays Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 1-1, 2.53 ERA, 10 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 0 HR, 0.94 WHIP, .225 OBA, 1 BB, 11 K in 2 starts (3 appearances)
- Career vs. Twins: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 4-2 road setback Aug. 9
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:53 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Guardians -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+155) | Guardians +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Twins 3
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (-115) are the play, as they look to clinch a postseason spot Thursday afternoon.
It will be interesting to see how the Twins (-105) react to Wednesday’s gut-wrenching defeat. They’re likely not going to fare terribly well, as the Twins are just 21-22 this season against left-handed starting pitchers.
Run line/Against the spread
If you can’t trust Cleveland at home, backing Guardians +1.5 (-190) is just a little too expensive for insurance. Cleveland will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return.
If you were to toss the Guardians into a multi-leg parlay, it’s perfectly OK to include them, but playing Cleveland straight up on the run line is not recommended.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-110) is a strong play in the series finale under the sun.
The winds will be blowing in from the left-center field power alley into the face of the batters at a 6-10 mph pace, picking up as the game goes along.
Despite the Over Wednesday, the Under is still 13-2-2 in the past 17 games for the Guardians, while going 4-2-2 in the past 8 in the series.
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