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The Minnesota Twins (79-71) and the Cleveland Guardians (87-64) play the 2nd contest of a 4-game series on Tuesday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 8-2
The Twins fired out to a 3-0 lead in the top of the 3rd inning Monday, but Cleveland outscored Minnesota 4-0 in the final 5 innings, including a go-ahead 2-run HR by rookie Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the 8th inning.
Cleveland has managed 40 come-from-behind victories this season, and the magic number for the Guardians to clinch a playoff spot is now just 2. Closer Emmanuel Clase was able to nail down his 46th save, as Cleveland improved to 46-27 at home, best mark in the AL.
The Under (7.5) hung on in the series opener, halting a 5-game Over streak for the Twins.
For the Guardians, the Under is now 13-1-2 across the previous 16 outings. Cleveland has posted 6 wins in the past 8 games, while going 6-3 in the previous 9 outings at Progressive Field.
Twins at Guardians projected starters
RHP Zebby Matthews vs. RHP Gavin Williams
Matthews (1-3, 7.11 ERA) makes his 7th career start. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 25 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (2 solo HR), 2 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home victory vs. Los Angeles Angels last Wednesday
- 2024 road splits: 0-2, 5.40 ERA, 10 IP, 6 ER, 1 HR, 1.60 WHIP, .295 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 3 BB, 5 K in 2 starts
- 2024 splits vs. Central Division: 1-1, 5.40 ERA, 10 IP, 6 ER, 2 HR, .318 OBA, 1 BB, 9 K in 2 starts
- Has never faced Guardians
Williams (3-9, 5.23 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 65 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 5 K in 5-2 setback vs. Tampa Bay Rays Thursday
- 2024 home splits: 0-6, 7.07 ERA, 28 IP, 22 ER, 5 HR, 1.75 WHIP, .319 OBA, 12 BB, 35 K in 6 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 2-0, 1.50 ERA, 12 IP, 2 ER, 5 BB, 7 K, 0.83 WHIP in 3 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:27 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Guardians -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-225) | Guardians -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -125 | U: -105)
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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Guardians 3
Moneyline
Look for the TWINS (+105) to return the favor in Game 2 of this series after a heartbreaking loss in Monday’s opener.
Minnesota got off to a tremendous start, but it was unable to hang onto the lead, as Josh Naylor and Manzardo provided the late-game heroics to get the game to Clase to close it out.
While Matthews isn’t a rock-solid option as a starter for the Twins, Williams has been a disaster at Progressive Field, going 0-6 with a 7.07 ERA in 28 IP across 6 starts in front of the home fans.
Run line/Against the spread
If you need a little insurance, Twins +1.5 (-225) will set you back more than 2 times your potential return. That’s just too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
If you like Minnesota, just pick it straight up.
AVOID.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-105) is the play in all Guardians games until further notice.
The Under held on in Monday’s game, and it is now 13-1-2 in the past 16 contests for Cleveland. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the past 6 meetings in this series, too.
In addition, the Over-Under is 1-1 in 2 road starts for Matthews, so not much to glean there. The total has gone low at a 4-0-1 clip in the past 5 starts for Williams.
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