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The Minnesota Twins (79-70) and the Cleveland Guardians (86-64) open a 4-game series on Monday (ESPN+). First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Twins vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Guardians lead 7-2
The Twins salvaged the series final against the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday, winning 9-2 as a moderate (-166) favorite as the Over (9) cashed. Minnesota has won 3 of the past 5 games, while cashing the Over in all 5 outings.
The Guardians earned the split of the 4-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday, winning 2-0 behind RHP Ben Lively. The Under cashed in all 4 games of the series at home, with Cleveland averaging 2.8 runs per game (RPG) on offense, while allowing just 2.3 RPG.
Cleveland has won 5 of the past 7 games, while going 5-3 in the previous 8 contests at Progressive Field. The Under is 12-1-2 in the previous 15 games, too.
These teams met in Cleveland May 17-19, with the Guardians earned the 3-game sweep while outscoring the Twins 19-8, as the Under cashed in 2 of the 3 outings.
Twins at Guardians projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. LHP Matthew Boyd
Lopez (15-8, 3.88 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 169 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 4 R (0 ER), 8 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 10 K in 10-5 home victory vs. Los Angeles Angels last Tuesday
- 2024 road splits: 8-4, 4.11 ERA, 87 2/3 IP, 40 ER, 14 HR, 1.11 WHIP, .222 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 24 BB, 100 K in 15 starts
- Last 7 games: 5-1, 1.79 ERA, 45 1/3 IP, 9 ER, 7 BB, 41 K, 1.13 WHIP
- Career vs. Guardians: 2-2, 3.64 ERA, 29 2/3 IP, 12 ER, 32 H, 10 BB, 21 K in 5 starts
Boyd (2-1, 2.18 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.91 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 33 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 4 R (1 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 6-4 road win vs. Chicago White Sox Wednesday
- 2024 home splits: 1-1, 1.56 ERA, 17 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 0 HR, 0.63 WHIP, .167 OBA, 1 BB, 18 K in 3 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 9-8, 4.62 ERA, 132 1/3 IP, 68 ER, 40 BB, 134 K, 1.10 WHIP in 23 starts (1 CG)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:33 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: -105)
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Twins at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The TWINS (-115) are a solid play as a slight road favorite in this series opener.
Lopez has been on fire lately, going 5-1 with a 1.79 ERA across his past 7 starts. It won’t be easy, as the left-hander Boyd has also pitched well since making his team debut. It will be tough, but Minnesota is a strong option to get off on the right foot.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more on the adventurous side, play the TWINS -1.5 (+150) on the run line rather than the moneyline.
Minnesota has just 3 wins in the past 9 games, but it has won by 2 or more runs in each of those victories. So, if you like the Twins to win, you should like them to get the job done on the run line, too.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-105) is a great play in this AL Central Division showdown.
The Under is 3-1-1 in the past 5 meetings. While the Over has connected at a 5-0 pace for the Twins, the total has gone low at a crazy 12-1-2 pace across the previous 15 outings for the Guardians.
The Under is 3-1 in Boyd’s past 4 starting assignments, too, while the total has gone low at a 2-1-1 clip in Lopez’s past 4 outings.
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