The Minnesota Twins (54-70) and Boston Red Sox (71-55) open a three-game series Tuesday. First pitch at Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Twins RHP Griffin Jax (3-1, 5.11 ERA) makes his seventh start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 44 IP.
- Has a 2.73 ERA with 7 BB and 21 K over 26 1/3 IP across five starts since the All-Star break. However, he has been aided by a 1.83 BABIP over that span.
- Has higher than average Exit Velocity, HardHit% and FB% which has led to a 2.25 HR/9.
Red Sox RHP Tanner Houck (0-3, 3.12 ERA) makes his eighth start in his 10th game. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 through 34 2/3 IP.
- 0-1 with a 2.95 ERA, 5 BB and 31 K over 21 1/3 IP over his last five starts. Boston is 3-2 in those games.
- Has pitched into the sixth inning just once and has completed5 innings on only two occasions.
Twins at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Red Sox -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-108) | Red Sox -1.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Boston 7, Minnesota 4
Money line (ML)
Despite their overall struggles in August the Red Sox are 6-3 at Fenway Park and against clubs with losing records. The Twins started the month strong but are 1-4 in their last five games while allowing 6.8 runs per game.
Jax’s recent success is belied by digging deeper. Despite his impressive second-half surface numbers through five starts, he has had an xFIP over 5.00 in three of them and a BABIP under .135 in three as well. Those numbers suggest a regression to the mean is in the cards.
The number here for the Red Sox is just too high to be a standalone bet. You can look to add it to a parlay or PASS on the money line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Boston’s bats have been a major letdown in many of its recent losses but that shouldn’t be the case Tuesday against Jax.
There seems to be enough of a starting pitching advantage for Boston to suggest it will be able to keep Minnesota in check long enough to do suitable damage to cover.
I prefer to see ATS bets with plus money but the play on this game is a “LEAN” to the RED SOX -1.5 (-112).
Over/Under (O/U)
We’re banking on Boston to hit Jax hard, and while I anticipate Houck keeping the Twins in check I don’t suspect he’ll go deep into the game.
We could see a heavy dose of both bullpens which should allow for some extra runs late in the game.
This number is up a full run from its opening line and I hate to follow a crowd betting heavily into the Over, but I’m looking toward a partial-unit play on OVER 10.5 (-107).
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