The Miami Heat (35-31) hosts Minnesota Timberwolves (20-46) Friday at American Airlines Arena for an 8 p.m. ET game. Below, we analyze the Timberwolves-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Minnesota has lost back-to-back games to the New Orleans Pelicans Saturday and Memphis Grizzlies Wednesday outright and failed to cover by a half-point in each game.
Before the last two games, the T-Wolves won four in a row and six of eight (6-1-1 against this spread in those games), which includes a 119-111 over the Heat in their first meeting this season (April 16).
The 7-seed Heat have the same record as the sixth-place Boston Celtics but are behind them, and in the play-in territory (seeds 7-10 participate in the postseason play-in), because they lose the tiebreaker.
Miami’s three-game winning streak was snapped its last time out by the Dallas Mavericks but the Heat are 7-3 overall and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
Timberwolves at Heat: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Timberwolves +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Heat -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Timberwolves +6 (-110) | Heat -6 (-110)
- Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Timberwolves at Heat: Key injuries
Mavericks
- SG Malik Beasley (hamstring) out
- SF Jaden McDaniels (personal) out
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (illness) questionable
- SG Tyler Herro (foot) questionable
- SG Victor Oladipo (knee) out
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Timberwolves at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Heat 115, Timberwolves 112
Money line (ML)
PASS even though I’m on Minnesota plus the points in this spot and often will sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover because the T-Wolves (+195) invent new ways to choke away leads.
Maybe it’d be worth taking a shot on Minnesota’s money line if we knew Butler would miss tonight’s game, but at the moment let’s focus on the spread.
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Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the TIMBERWOLVES +6 (-110) for a half unit pending Butler’s game status, and if he misses I’d be willing to up my bet to a full unit.
The T-Wolves upset the Heat a few weeks ago with Butler in the lineup so they could certainly do it again if he doesn’t play, and Minnesota has been cashing ATS tickets for backers recently.
And as much as I like Heat All-Star Bam Adebayo, T-Wolves big Karl-Anthony Towns is a better player with a significant size advantage.
KAT scored an easy 24 points on 8-of-14 shooting before fouling out of the previous Timberwolves-Heat meeting, and that was due in part to Butler’s aggressiveness at attacking the basket, which gets opponents into foul trouble.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the OVER 222.5 (-115) for 1 unit because if Butler doesn’t play I anticipate Miami upping its volume of 3-point attempts, which would be bad news for a Minnesota team that has the worst 3-point defense in the league.
Also, the Over has cashed in three straight Minnesota games, seven consecutive Miami games and in eight of the previous Timberwolves-Heat meetings.
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