The Minnesota Timberwolves (6-17) wrap up their five-game road trip Monday with an 8:30 p.m. ET game against the Dallas Mavericks (10-14) at American Airlines Center. Below, we analyze the Timberwolves-Mavericks NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Minnesota has lost three of four on its current road trip but split a two-game miniseries with the Oklahoma City Thunder by losing 120-118 as a 2-point underdog Saturday. The Timberwolves have been a little feistier lately, going 4-0-1 against the spread with a plus-1.3 net rating in their last five games.
The Mavericks just split a two-game home miniseries with the Golden State Warriors after winning the second 134-132 as 4.5 point favorites. This will be Dallas’ third game of a seven-game homestand and they’ve been terrible at home this season. The Mavs are 3-7 at home and 2-8 ATS with a minus-11.2 ATS margin in those games.
Dallas swept the season series 3-0 straight up and ATS last season despite All-Star PG Luka Doncic having subpar performances in his two games vs. Minnesota. Doncic had a minus-11.9 net rating and averaged 21.0 points on .395/.143/.625 shooting in those two contests.
Timberwolves at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Timberwolves +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Mavericks -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Timberwolves +9.5 (-110) | Mavericks -9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Timberwolves at Mavericks: Key injuries
Timberwolves
- PG D’Angelo Russell (quadriceps) questionable
- C Juancho Hernangomez (health and safety protocols) questionable
- C Karl-Anthony Towns (health and safety protocols) doubtful
- PF Jarrett Culver (ankle) out
Mavericks
- Nothing affecting the betting odds.
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Timberwolves at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Mavericks 114, Timberwolves 110
Money line (ML)
I’m going to lean TIMBERWOLVES (+340) for a one-fifth-unit for a few reasons.
First, this is going to sound crazy, but the news of Russell’s status is slightly important before placing a wager because Russell’s per-game numbers are nearly identical to Luka’s in their head-to-head meetings. There’s a solid chance Russell can pick apart this terrible Dallas defense.
Second, Minnesota attempts the fifth-highest rate of shots at the rim and Dallas’ opponents have the second-highest shooting percentage at the rim, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Finally, the Mavericks have the worst 3-point shooting percentage in the league while the Timberwolves hold foes to the fewest 3-point attempts per game and are 16th in opponent’s effective field-goal percentage (eFG%).
(My predicted score is an honest projection but there is value on Minnesota in what should be a close game.)
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Against the spread (ATS)
Since I lean Minnesota to pull off an upset, I like TIMBERWOLVES +9.5 (-110). Dallas is a team to fade right now because the public’s approval rating of Luka and expectations for the Mavs are still too high.
According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the money is on Dallas and there’s nothing from its recent performances that should inspire this much of the market.
Also, Dallas has one of the worst spread differentials vs. bottom-10 teams in defensive efficiency, according to CleaningTheGlass. GIMME TIMBERWOLVES +9.5 (-110) for 1.5 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because I’ve used my Timberwolves-Mavericks budget on the above markets. I lean Under 225.5 (-110) because five of Minnesota’s previous six games have gone Under; however, Dallas has cashed three straight Overs and four of its last five games have gone Over.
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Also see:
- NBA players react to Tom Brady, Buccaneers winning Super Bowl (Rookie Wire)
- Trade rumor rankings (Hoops Hype)
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