The No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2, 4-2 in Big Ten) host the Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-3, 4-2) Saturday for a Big Ten West battle at Kinnick Stadium. The kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Minnesota vs. Iowa odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
This is a meeting between the two (of four) teams tied atop in the Big Ten West standings.
Minnesota had its four-game winning streak snapped last weekend after losing 14-6 to the Illinois Fighting Illini as 14.5-point home favorites. The Golden Gophers are 5-3-1 ATS and 4-5 O/U with the 59th-toughest schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Iowa broke out of its two-game slump by beating the Northwestern Wildcats 17-12 but failed to cover as 12-point home favorites and haven’t covered the spread in the last three outings. The Hawkeyes are 5-4 ATS and 2-7 O/U with the 20th-toughest schedule (according to Sagarin).
The Hawkeyes have beaten the Golden Gophers in five straight games (4-0-1 ATS) and all four since Minnesota hired head coach P.J. Fleck in 2017.
Minnesota at Iowa odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Minnesota +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Iowa -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Minnesota +4.5 (-112) | Iowa -4.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 37.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Minnesota at Iowa odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Minnesota 20, Iowa 16
Money line
Slight “LEAN” to MINNESOTA (+165) because I “like” Golden Gophers getting points in this spot and think there’s value in the underdog’s money line.
Furthermore, most college football minds are realizing that Iowa isn’t as good as its record indicates and the advanced college football gurus back that up.
For instance, Iowa may rank No. 14 in USA TODAY’s poll, but Football Outsiders ranks the Hawkeyes 42nd in net drive efficiency, 40th in net points per drive and 46th in net points per play.
Granted, “sprinkling” the underdog’s money line in this spot is more of a long-term strategy to maximize profits. So, Minnesota plus the points is the much wiser wager.
Against the spread
Iowa’s best arguments for covering this game are “the Hawkeyes are at home” and “Iowa has played a tougher schedule”. But, I’m seeing more value in MINNESOTA +4.5 (-112) at the moment.
For example, the Golden Gophers have better differentials in predicted points added (PPA), yards per play, Havoc rates, 3rd-down conversion rate, and red zone scoring rate.
Additionally, this is a better spot for Minnesota who is 9-6 ATS as a road underdog and 21-17-2 ATS in Big Ten games since hiring Fleck.
Also, there’s been a “sharp line move” towards Minnesota as this game opened with Iowa -7 but has been steamed all the way down to the current price.
You could make a case we are getting to the party a little late on the Golden Gophers so that’s another reason to maybe just bet Minnesota’s spread.
But, definitely BET MINNESOTA +4.5 (-112) instead of or heavier than the Golden Gophers on the money line.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 37.5 (-115) as a fade of a market that’s betting the Over at a 75-plus percent clip at the time of publishing, according to Pregame.com.
The bottom line is both defenses are better than the offenses, but, other than that, I don’t have much for the total.
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