The Milwaukee Bucks (2-2) face the Miami Heat (1-2) Wednesday at the American Airlines Arena in the second of a back-to-back coming off of a 47-point Bucks beatdown yesterday. The tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Bucks-Heat NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Bucks at Heat: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Heat +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Bucks -5.5 (-110) | Heat +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 226.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Bucks at Heat: Key Injuries
Bucks
- SF Torrey Craig (nose) questionable
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
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Bucks at Heat: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 124, Heat 113
Money line (ML)
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE. The Bucks are the right side, but my personal rule is to stay away from regular-season money line favorites of -150 or more.
Against the spread (ATS)
Tuesday’s Bucks-Heat game was the first meeting between the two since Miami upset Milwaukee just a few months earlier in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Bucks got the most revenge it could in a regular-season game by scorching the Heat 144-97.
Milwaukee set a record for most 3-pointers made by a team in a game and won all four quarters by at least 7 points despite reigning NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring just 9 points.
Newly acquired PG Jrue Holiday put up 24 points on 9-for-15 shooting, had a 7-0 assist/turnover ratio and 3 steals and All-Star Khris Middleton added 25 points on 10-for-13 shooting. The Heat were without All-Star Jimmy Butler, but it’s not like Butler would’ve made up for the 47-point deficit.
On one hand, Milwaukee’s massacre of the Heat Tuesday doesn’t accurately reflect the gap between what these teams will end up being. On the other hand, the Bucks are on a mission, and the Heat is at the top of their checklist.
I am willing to lay the points and BET BUCKS -5.5 (-110) for 1.25 units because there have been so many blowouts thus far in the NBA season, and Milwaukee is so much more buttoned-up at the moment than Miami.
There’s a confluence of obvious reasons why the Heat’s home-court edge has been lessened this season so I’m throwing out Miami’s incredible home/road splits from the last year.
Also, if Butler cannot go in tonight’s game, then Miami just doesn’t have enough defense to prevent another Bucks stomping. If Butler does play, I’d honestly still make the bet but just a smaller wager.
Over/Under (O/U)
It’s tough to envision much of a bounce-back performance from the Heat defensively when you keep in mind how many Bucks hit 3-pointers and that Miami held Giannis to single-digits.
Plus the Heat only shot 29.7% from behind the arc yesterday but had the second-highest 3-point percentage in the NBA last year. The Bucks are shooting an NBA-high 40 threes per game so unless both teams have an off-shooting night the OVER 226.5 (-110) should be a plus-EV bet. I’d bet the Bucks ATS heavier than the total, however.
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