The Miami Heat welcome the Milwaukee Bucks to the Kaseya Center Saturday. Tip in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinal is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bucks vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Heat set the pace early in the series, beating the Bucks on their home court 130-117.
They came out a bit flatter in Game 2 but will still return home with a tied series. The Bucks won Game 2 138-122. The Heat were without G Tyler Herro while the Bucks were without two-time MVP F Giannis Antetokounmpo.
C Brook Lopez stepped up with a team-high 25 points as all 5 starters hit double figures. Both teams shot over 53% from the field in Game 2 as the 216.5 total was annihilated.
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Bucks at Heat odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bucks -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Heat +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bucks -4.5 (-115) | Heat +4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Bucks at Heat key injuries
Bucks
- G Tyler Herro (hand) out
- G Kyle Lowry (knee) questionable
Heat
- F Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) questionable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Bucks at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 115, Heat 108
Moneyline
AVOID.
The Bucks were 22-4 during the regular season as a road favorite. Although the intensity will be higher, they should still come out on top.
At (-210), they are too expensive to play to win outright. Similarly, Milwaukee’s strengths make Miami’s (+170) not great value.
PASS on the moneyline.
Against the spread
BET BUCKS -4.5 (-115).
Assuming the Bucks get their 2-time MVP back, this is a good line to back them at. The Bucks were 16-7-3 ATS in the regular season as a road favorite, the 2nd-best covering rate in the league.
The Bucks finished 44-36-2 ATS this season. Miami was the 2nd-worst covering team at home as well, posting just a 15-26-2 ATS record. Those flaws will come back to haunt them.
Considering these season-long trends, take the BUCKS -4.5 (-115).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 219.5 (-115).
Both games in this series have gone Over with both total having closed at 221 or lower. In both games, both teams have hit 115, and one team has hit 130.
The quality offense is on both ends, and the trends point to the Over as well. The Bucks are 8-2 O/U in their last 10 games. Miami is 7-2 O/U in its last 9 games.
Back the OVER 219.5 (-115).
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