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The Milwaukee Brewers (86-66) are closing in on the NL Central title as they wrap up a 4-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals (67-85) on Thursday. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 1:15 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 5-4
The Cardinals are 2-4 on their current homestand, dropping their record to 33-44 in their home park this season. After winning the NL Central division in 2022 they sit in last place as the 2023 season winds to a close.
Milwaukee is 9-4 in its last 13 games, outscoring opponents 69-27 during that span. The Brewers have a 7-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central with 10 games to go.
Brewers at Cardinals projected starters
LHP Wade Miley vs. RHP Miles Mikolas
Miley (8-4, 3.38 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 109 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 5-3 home win vs. Washington Nationals Friday
- 2023 road stats: 3-2, 2.98 ERA (48 1/3 IP, 16 ER) with 5.6 K/9 and .215 BABIP in 10 starts
- Career vs. Cardinals: 3-6, 4.11 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 28 ER) in 12 starts.
- Faced St. Louis once this year but left in the 2nd inning with a lat strain that put him on the IL
Mikolas (7-12, 4.84 ERA) makes his 33rd start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 182 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 6-1 home loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 2-6, 5.48 ERA (87 IP, 53 ER) with 6.6 K/9 across 16 starts
- Career vs. Brewers: 8-4, 3.69 ERA (83 IP, 34 ER) with 8.3 K/9 in 14 appearances (13 starts).
- 5 starts vs. Brewers in 2022: 3.31 ERA and 31/5 K/BB in 32 2/3 IP
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Cardinals at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Cardinals -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+155) | Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Brewers at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 6, Cardinals 5
Moneyline
Mikolas has been struggling lately, as he has posted a lousy 7.27 ERA and 3.9 K/9 over his last 6 starts. Milwaukee has been hot and should come out on top once again in this one so BET BREWERS (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
Each of Milwaukee’s last 14 wins have been by multiple runs and they are facing a pitcher who hasn’t missed many bats lately. The Brewers are 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching but they have been hot lately and face a starting pitcher who has struggled in recent weeks.
On the other side, Miley has recorded a respectable 4.06 ERA over his last 7 starts but he can thank a .179 BABIP for keeping the damage to a minimum. He has put up an awful 19/14 K/BB during that time and is a poor bet to keep the St. Louis bats completely in check. PASS on this line.
Over/Under
Mikolas has displayed awful skills and results over the past month, while Miley’s skills don’t quite line up with his solid surface stats. Neither offense is likely to get shut down in this contest and this total looks a little too low so make a play on OVER 8.5 (-115).
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