The Milwaukee Brewers (26-16) meet the San Diego Padres (28-14) Tuesday for the second game of their 3-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego took the series opener 3-2 in extra innings Monday thanks to a walk-off RBI single by DH Jose Azocar in the bottom of the 10th inning.
The Padres are on a 5-game win streak and have won 8 of their last 10 games. The Brew Crew are 6-4 straight up (SU) in their last 10 contests but have lost back-to-back outings.
Brewers at Padres projected starters
RHP Corbin Burnes vs. LHP Blake Snell
Burnes is 1-2 with a 2.26 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 51 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 5 K in 7-6 home win over the Atlanta Braves Wednesday.
- 2021 vs. the Padres: 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 3 BB and 17 K across 2 starts.
Snell is 0-1 and will make his 2nd start this season. He took the loss Wednesday in a 3-0 defeat at the Philadelphia Phillies with 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 vs. the Brewers: Loss, 5-3, May 24 in Milwaukee with 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 7 K.
Brewers at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:38 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Padres +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+133) | Padres +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Brewers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 3, Brewers 1
Money line
LEAN PADRES (+110) because I’ll buy stock in Snell vs. the reigning NL Cy Young winner and there’s a line freeze in the betting market since most of the action is on the Brewers (-135) but the number hasn’t budged off the opener according to Pregame.com.
Milwaukee is 6-8 SU vs. lefty starters and 4-4 SU in Burnes’ 8 starts while San Diego is 9-4 SU as a home favorite and 4-0 SU in its last 4 games as an underdog.
However, the Under is my favorite bet in this game hence the LEAN PADRES (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a “lean” to the Padres +1.5 (-165) because it’s the right side but a little too pricey. The Brewers are 4-12 RL as road favorites and the Padres are 12-4 RL as underdogs.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 6.5 (+100) since both starters’ pitching peripherals are outstanding against tonight’s opponent and both lineups struggle against their respective opposing starters’ handedness.
Burnes has a 0.53 FIP, 42.2 K% and .141/.188/.170 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line in 45 plate appearances (PA) against current Padres hitters, per Statcast.
Snell has a 2.80 FIP, 31.1 K% and .173/.280/.218 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line in 45 PA vs. active Brewers batters.
Milwaukee’s lineup also scores just 3.7 R/9 vs. lefties compared to 5.3 against right-handers and San Diego’s lineup puts up just 4.2 R/9 vs. righties and 5.5 against left-handed pitching.
The Padres are 6-10 O/U as underdogs (1-4 O/U as home underdogs) and Petco Park is a very pitcher-friendly 28th in park factor.
The UNDER 6.5 (+100) is my favorite wager in this game.
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