The Milwaukee Brewers (70-46) continue their road trip with the opener of a three-game series Friday against the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-74). First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Brewers LHP Brett Anderson (4-5, 3.54 ERA) is scheduled to make his 18th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 73 2/3 IP.
- Hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any start since June while recording a 1.40 ERA through 25 2/3 IP across five outings.
- Is 2-0 with 0 ER on 9 H and 2 BB against 6 K through 12 IP in two starts against Pittsburgh this season.
Pirates RHP Mitch Keller (3-9, 7.06 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.81 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 57 1/3 IP.
- Has allowed 8 ER on 15 H and 4 BB with 6 K through 10 IP in two starts since being recalled from Triple-A Aug. 1.
- Grades in the fifth percentile or worse among all MLB pitchers in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, opponents expected wOBA, expected ERA and opponents expected batting average.
Brewers at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Pirates +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-122) | Pirates +1.5 (-102)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
Brewers 7, Pirates 3
Money line (ML)
Milwaukee leads the season series between the NL Central foes 12-4 and there’s very little to suggest the success against Pittsburgh won’t continue Friday.
While the starting pitching advantage alone is enough to give the Brewers the nod here, it’s also worth noting that their offense absolutely has the edge as well.
Milwaukee plated 27 runs in its last two games while Pittsburgh scored 28 runs over its last 10 contests. While that’s an unsustainable pace, at least for the visiting side, Milwaukee scored 5 or more runs in six of its last 10 games.
It’s very likely the Brewers won’t need to do a lot more damage than that tonight to get the job done. The issue here is the juice on the full game line is meaningful at -220.
Find yourself a better price by looking to the FIRST 5 INNINGS 3-WAY LINE and grabbing BREWERS (-135).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Milwaukee covered a -1.5 run line in each of its 12 victories over Pittsburgh this season, with 11 of them coming by enough runs to cover a -2.5 spread. The average margin of victory for the Brewers across their 12 wins in the season series is 5.4 runs.
Keller has been a bit unlucky with a .364 BABIP on the season; however, even if he manages to keep things close the Brewers will likely get 4 innings against Pirates relievers in the bottom five of MLB in WAR, FIP, xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% since the All-Star Game.
There’s plenty of time for Milwaukee to pull through by a margin. BET MILWAUKEE -1.5 (-122).
Over/Under (O/U)
While the Brewers may have to do a lot of the heavy lifting toward the total themselves, their batting numbers of late and against Pittsburgh on the season suggest they may be able to do just that.
The problem is we may not be able to rely on the Pirates to pull their weight. There have been numerous meetings between the clubs this season where Milwaukee has posted 6 or 7 runs only to see Pittsburgh add only 1 or 2. The Pirates averaging just 2.8 runs per game over their last 10 outings doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
However, there are enough trends at play here to give a small “lean” to a partial-unit play on the OVER 9.5 (+105).
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