The Milwaukee Brewers (42-38) and New York Mets (36-44) meet Thursday to close out a 4-game series in Queens. First pitch at Citi Field is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 5-1
Milwaukee has taken 2 of 3 games in this set, including a 5-2 victory Wednesday. The Brewers have logged a 3.45 ERA in their last 10 road games.
The Mets have lost 6 of their last 8 games and are just 6-17 since June 2. A club that played .667 ball (54-27) at Citi Field a year ago is just 18-17 on home turf this season.
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Brewers at Mets projected starters
RHP Adrian Houser vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Houser (2-2, 4.02 ERA) makes his 8th start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 through 40 1/3 IP.
- Returns to the rotation after a pair of relief outings that saw him yield 1 ER over 5 innings
- Current Mets batters own a high-contact .859 OPS against him
Scherzer (7-2, 3.95 ERA) is tabbed for his 14th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 70 2/3 IP.
- Has a dodgy line against current Brewers bats (.824 OPS allowed)
- Coming off effective back-to-back starts against tougher foes in the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies (combined 14 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 16K)
- Owns a 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at Citi Field this season
Brewers at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:52 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Brewers +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-128) | Mets -1.5 (+106)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -106 | U: -114)
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Brewers at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Brewers 3
Moneyline
The Brewers are 3-6 in the last 9 series meetings in New York. They are playing their 7th game in a 10-game road trip through Cincinnati, New York and Pittsburgh. Milwaukee is 1-5 over its last 6 get-away games, and that 1 win was in extra-innings-ghost-runner fashion.
Houser has been running into a lot of bats and is a fade-worthy starter, and the Milwaukee bullpen figures to be overrated by its surface numbers. The relief comparison favors the Brewers on the surface but the Mets in a wagering-leverage sense.
Scherzer has been sharp in his last 2 turns, and going back further, his indicators are strong. He’s facing a Milwaukee offense that owns a .611 OPS across its last 9 games.
The Brewers have a 13-4 record in 1-run games and that has them overrated in general.
The Mets (-190) play is solid in a game that can be pegged as a near 70% probability for the home side. However, risk-averse players on the outlay side may want to PASS on the moneyline and consider getting New York by with a multi-run cushion.
Run line/Against the spread
NEW YORK -1.5 (+106) is a play that gets some lean with the better run-scoring environment — and perhaps a looser game — created with a warm day and an outward breeze. Both are in the forecast.
Milwaukee has been very good in 1-run games but has played fewer than most clubs. The Brewers’ last 7 losses have all been by 2 runs or more.
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Over/Under
PASS.
There is no lean on either side of this total. There are some factors that push toward more scoring. An in-form Scherzer and a better-than-advertised Mets bullpen swing the needle to neutral.
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