Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Brewers (40-37) and the New York Mets (35-42) open a 4-game series Monday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+/MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 3-0

The Brewers took 2 of 3 games in an interleague road series at the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend but are still just 2-4 in their past 6 games away from American Family Field. Milwaukee has alternated wins and losses in its last 7 games overall.

The Mets have dropped 4 of the past 5 games, while going 5-15 in the previous 20 games dating back to June 2. Pitching has been the biggest culprit lately, as New York has allowed 24 runs in the past 4 contests.

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Brewers at Mets projected starters

RHP Colin Rea vs. RHP Justin Verlander

Rea (3-4, 4.88 ERA) makes his 13th start and 14th overall appearance. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 over 62 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 7-5 home win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
  • 2023 road splits: 1-2, 5.06 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 15 ER – 3 HR) with a .222 opponent batting average (OBA) in 5 starts

Verlander (2-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 across 52 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K in a 4-2 road loss vs. the Houston Astros Tuesday
  • 2023 home splits: 1-2, 3.24 ERA (25 IP, 9 ER – 4 HR) with a .207 OBA in 4 starts

Brewers at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:46 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Brewers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-120) | Mets -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Brewers at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Brewers 3

Moneyline

The Mets (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite a bit of risk for not enough reward. It’s a little beyond my personal limit of -180 for a standalone bet. However, including this in a multi-team parlay is not as hard to swallow.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The METS -1.5 (+100) at even money on the run line are a much stronger play.

Verlander has been night and day at home versus on the road. He has a 3.24 ERA and .207 OBA at home across 25 innings while posting a 5.67 ERA and .287 OBA in 27 innings away from Citi Field.

The Brewers have managed just a 3-6 mark on the run line in the past 9 games as an underdog.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-110) is the lean — but go very lightly.

The total has gone Under at a 4-1-1 clip in the Brewers’ past 6 games following a win and is 7-3-1 in their last 11 outings on the road.

The Under is 8-3-1 in the past 12 games at home for the Mets and has cashed at a 7-1-1 clip in their last 9 at home against a right-handed starting pitcher.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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