The Milwaukee Brewers (40-37) and the New York Mets (35-42) open a 4-game series Monday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+/MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 3-0
The Brewers took 2 of 3 games in an interleague road series at the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend but are still just 2-4 in their past 6 games away from American Family Field. Milwaukee has alternated wins and losses in its last 7 games overall.
The Mets have dropped 4 of the past 5 games, while going 5-15 in the previous 20 games dating back to June 2. Pitching has been the biggest culprit lately, as New York has allowed 24 runs in the past 4 contests.
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Brewers at Mets projected starters
RHP Colin Rea vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Rea (3-4, 4.88 ERA) makes his 13th start and 14th overall appearance. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 over 62 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 7-5 home win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
- 2023 road splits: 1-2, 5.06 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 15 ER – 3 HR) with a .222 opponent batting average (OBA) in 5 starts
Verlander (2-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 across 52 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K in a 4-2 road loss vs. the Houston Astros Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 1-2, 3.24 ERA (25 IP, 9 ER – 4 HR) with a .207 OBA in 4 starts
Brewers at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-120) | Mets -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Brewers at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Brewers 3
Moneyline
The Mets (-190) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite a bit of risk for not enough reward. It’s a little beyond my personal limit of -180 for a standalone bet. However, including this in a multi-team parlay is not as hard to swallow.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The METS -1.5 (+100) at even money on the run line are a much stronger play.
Verlander has been night and day at home versus on the road. He has a 3.24 ERA and .207 OBA at home across 25 innings while posting a 5.67 ERA and .287 OBA in 27 innings away from Citi Field.
The Brewers have managed just a 3-6 mark on the run line in the past 9 games as an underdog.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-110) is the lean — but go very lightly.
The total has gone Under at a 4-1-1 clip in the Brewers’ past 6 games following a win and is 7-3-1 in their last 11 outings on the road.
The Under is 8-3-1 in the past 12 games at home for the Mets and has cashed at a 7-1-1 clip in their last 9 at home against a right-handed starting pitcher.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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