The Milwaukee Brewers (38-32) meet the Colorado Rockies (30-41) in the third game of their four-game series at Coors Field Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Colorado beat Milwaukee in extra innings Friday, 6-5, extending its win streak to five games and pushing the Brewers’ losing skid to five games.
Season series: Rockies lead 2-0.
RHP Adrian Houser is the projected starter for the Brewers. Houser is 4-5 with a 3.62 ERA (64 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 over 12 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 2 K in Milwaukee’s 5-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday.
- vs. Rockies on the current roster: 18 at-bats with a .111/.158/.111 slash line, 6/1 K/BB, 0 HR and 0 RBI.
LHP Austin Gomber makes his 15th start for the Rockies. Gomber is 6-5 with a 3.54 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 4 K Monday vs. the San Diego Padres.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 13 at-bats with a .231/.389/.231 slash line, 4/2 K/BB, 0 HR and 2 RBIs.
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Brewers at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:38 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Rockies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+145) | Rockies +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Rockies 6, Brewers 2
Money line (ML)
BET the ROCKIES (-110) for 1 unit because they are much better in the Mile High City, and Houser’s pitching numbers are poor when you look under the hood.
For instance, the Rockies are 24-15 in Coors Field this season and have won five straight over the Brewers in Colorado.
Furthermore, Gomber is 3-1 at home with 0.95 ERA and 0.81 WHIP compared to a 5.06 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road this season.
Also, Houser’s basic pitching numbers are solid but his peripherals tell a different story.
Houser grades in the 40th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected opponent’s wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K% and whiff rate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS. Three of Colorado’s past five home wins over Milwaukee have been by a single run so that rules out the Rockies on the alternate run line and the Rockies +1.5 (-175) is a little out of my price range.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 10.5 (-110) for a half unit because a majority of the market is betting the Over so there’s a contrarian angle to bet on the total and both lineups have below-average production at the plate.
Also, the Under has cashed in 13 of the last 16 Rockies-Brewers meetings at Coors Field and the Rockies have a 4-10 O/U record in Gomber’s 14 starts this season.
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