The Cincinnati Reds (48-42) host the Milwaukee Brewers (53-39) Friday to start a three-game series at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Reds lead 8-5.
RHP Adrian Houser is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Houser is 5-5 with a 3.74 ERA (82 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 over 16 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 0 ER (3 R), 5 H, 4 BB and 6 K in Milwaukee’s 5-3 win vs. the Reds July 8.
- Houser is 1-1 this season vs. Cincy with a 4.61 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 15 H, 11 BB and 14 K in three starts.
- vs. Reds on the current roster: 115 at-bats with a .330/.403/.643 slash line, 27/13 K/BB, 10 HR and 19 RBIs.
RHP Tyler Mahle makes his 19th start for the Reds. Mahle is 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA (95 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Mahle also picked up a no-decision in Cincy’s 5-4 loss vs. the Brewers July 8 with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
- Mahle is 1-0 against Milwaukee this season with a 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 7 H, 6 BB and 18 K in two starts.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 76 at-bats with a .263/.364/.474 slash line, 27/9 K/BB, 4 HR and 11 RBIs.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:00 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers +1.5 (-190) | Reds -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Reds 7, Brewers 5
Money line (ML)
The play is to BET the REDS (-140) FIRST 5 INNINGS because they have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup, and the “sharp” side of the market is backing the Reds to win outright, but Cincy’s bullpen is terrible.
For example, Mahle has a 4.51 FIP, .278 expected wOBA, .298 expected slugging percentage, 83.7 mph exit velocity and 36.1% strikeout rate against active Brewers batters.
While Houser has an 8.42 FIP, .379 expected wOBA, .521 expected slugging percentage, 87.8 mph exit velocity and 19.7% strikeout rate vs. current Reds hitters.
Furthermore, Houser is 1-2 with a 5.96 ERA, seven home runs allowed, a 1.46 WHIP and a 2.0 K/BB rate in his five career starts at Great American Ball Park.
Also, according to Pregame.com, three-fourths of cash wagered is on the Reds while a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Brewers. However, oddsmakers have made Cincy pricier to elicit more Milwaukee action.
Even though these betting splits are for Cincy’s full-game money line, I’d prefer to stick with REDS (-140) FIRST 5 INNINGS because Cincy’s bullpen is seventh-worst xFIP and fifth-worst WAR.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Reds -1.5 (+155) because the market has steamed up from a home underdog on the opening line to the current favorite.
However, what’s holding me back is Cincy’s unreliable bullpen and Milwaukee’s 18-4 ATS record as a road underdog this season.
Since we laid -140 with Cincy’s First 5 Innings money line, I’m OK PASSING on the run line here.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-120) for a half unit because this is yet another spot where the presumed “wiseguys” are on one side (the Over), and the “average Joe” is on the other side (the Under).
Moreover, Mahle has a 6.06 ERA at home this year and the Great American Ball Park is notoriously hitter-friendly with the fifth-most park factor runs scored in the majors.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]