The Milwaukee Brewers (34-27) and the Cincinnati Reds (29-30) match up Thursday to end their three-game series. First pitch is slated for 12:35 p.m ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 6-1 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 12.9 K/9 in 64 IP over 11 starts and one bullpen appearance.
Peralta has been on fire lately, giving up just two earned runs in his last two performances, both of which he threw for at least seven innings. However, he did give up two earned runs in 4 2/3 IP in his last outing against the Reds.
RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 2-8 with a 6.63 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9 in 58 1/3 IP over 12 starts.
One good thing to note about Castillo is that he could be gaining confidence, pitching six innings against the Cardinals and giving up just one earned run. However, he’s given up at least three earned runs in three of his last five starts.
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Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+125) | Reds +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Brewers 6, Reds 4
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” Brewers (-125) because the difference in starting pitching could be a game-changer. It’s not the best value, but it’s the better play.
Take it with a grain of salt, but the Reds are by far the worst team on Thursdays. They’re 2-4 with over a 9.00 ERA. Their pitchers are already looking forward to the weekend.
Now, let’s dive into a few real numbers. Coming off a win, the Reds are tossing a pitcher with over a 6.00 ERA through 12 starts to the mound. That’s never good news for the home side.
The Reds ate up LHP Brett Anderson, forcing him to exit with four earned runs. I wouldn’t expect the same success against Peralta who has given up four earned runs in just one start this season.
The Brewers relievers gave up two earned runs in five innings yesterday and were perfect in the first game of the series.
For that reason, I’m leaning towards the Brewers.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“BET” Brewers -1.5 (+125) because both games have been heavily dictated by the winning team, and the betting value is there. The pitching difference is what really makes the difference.
I’m expecting C Tyler Stephenson not to have his best game of the season as he did against the Brewers in the second game, the Brewers behind Peralta should be able to take care of business.
At this price, taking the NL Central’s leader that’s above .500 on the road at this value is an easy one.
Over/Under (O/U)
“PASS” on the Over/Under at 8.5 because both teams have been too streaky in the series.
The Over missed in the first game and nulled in the second game. It’s slated at eight, and I wouldn’t bet either way on this one.
The Reds do give up more than five earned runs in day games while the Brewers also aren’t great during the daytime either.
Not to harp on it again, but Peralta has been solid all season long while Castillo hasn’t been. With the over having yet to hit and the under not looking great either given the pitchers taking the mound, this is a pass.
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