The Milwaukee Brewers (22-23) and Cincinnati Reds (20-24) close out a three-game NL Central series Sunday at 1:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 13.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 45 IP over 8 starts.
Peralta is thus far enjoying the finest season of his career. He is managing hard contact at a much-improved clip (26% hard contact in 2021). He has pitched 13 shutout frames over his last two starts.
RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starter for the Reds. He is 1-6 with a 7.44 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 42 1/3 IP over 9 starts.
Castillo has scuffled through the first month-and-a-half of the season. The veteran righty isn’t missing as many bats as he has in the past, but he has held hard contact in check. He has mostly been undone by rates around the margins (.391 batting average on balls in play, 54.3% of runners left on base, 18.9% rate of fly balls as home runs). Castillo owns a 3.36 career ERA in his home ballpark, and he’s facing a Milwaukee nine that struggles against right-handers.
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Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+135) | Reds +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Reds 5, Brewers 4
Money line (ML)
Cincinnati batters own an .833 OPS against Peralta, and there is enough play in the Castillo side and the Reds’ advantage in home/road and left/right splits to make for value on a REDS +105 play.
Cincinnati’s .830 home OPS ranks second in the league; only four teams have a better OPS against right-handed starters than the Reds’ .769 figure.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the run line. The game has enough lean on the Over to make a loftier score uninviting on the Reds RL play. Take the better value on the ML.
Over/Under (O/U)
Two weekend-spent bullpens and a warmed-up, breeze-out-to-center Great American Ballpark make for a lean on the OVER 8 (-115).
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