The Milwaukee Brewers (21-22) roll into Great American Ball Park Thursday for the first of a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds (19-23) at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee lost both games of its interleague series at the Kansas City Royals and five of the past six games. The Brewers have lost three straight series.
Cincinnati got waxed Wednesday by the San Francisco Giants 19-4 and was swept in the four-game series. The Reds are just 3-7 in their past 10 games.
RHP Adrian Houser is on the hill for the Brewers. Houser is 3-4 with a 3.63 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 over eight starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-3, in 3 IP with 2 ER, 2 H, 5 BB and 3 K last Friday vs. the Atlanta Braves.
- Career vs. the Reds: 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.34 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 across four starts and three relief appearances.
- Vs. Reds on the current roster: 67 at-bats with a .343/.362/.701 slash line, 14/2 K/BB, 7 HR and 12 RBIs.
RHP Jeff Hoffman is the projected starter for the Reds. Hoffman is 2-3 with a 4.67 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across eight starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 5 K in Cincinnati’s 6-5 win at the Colorado Rockies Sunday.
- Career vs. the Brewers: 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 over two starts.
- Vs. Brewers on the current roster: 13 at-bats with a .308/.357/.385 slash line, 4/1 K/BB, 0 HR and 1 RBI.
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Brewers at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+135) | Reds +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Reds 7, Brewers 5
Money line (ML)
BET the REDS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because Cincinnati rakes Houser, and its bullpen is one of the worst in the league. So I don’t trust them to lockdown any game.
Both starters grade poorly in several advanced pitching metrics but Cincinnati’s lineup has drilled righties and has success vs. Houser.
For instance, hitters on Cincinnati’s roster have an absurd .432 wOBA, 8.52 FIP and .523 expected slugging percentage on 53 plate appearances vs. Houser.
Also, the Reds are sixth in wRC+, second in wOBA, third in OPS and 10th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching whereas Milwaukee has the second-lowest wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
However, since Cincinnati’s bullpen is in the bottom-third of the Majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% I’m going to STICK WITH REDS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because of the aforementioned concerns with Cincinnati’s bullpen, and I’m generally going to stay away from run lines for teams with poor bullpens.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-110) for a half unit because both starters are in the 38th percentile or lower in hard-hit rate, exit velocity and expected wOBA.
Furthermore, Cincinnati’s bullpen troubles are carrying over from last year, but Milwaukee’s bullpen has regressed to somewhat of a weakness. The Brewers relievers are below average in xFIP, SIERA and hard-hit rate.
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